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What to Expect From The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) Q4 Earnings?

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The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL - Free Report) is likely to see top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings on Aug 19. The consensus mark for quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.83 billion, which indicates growth of 6.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has decreased 2 cents in the past 30 days to 25 cents, calling for a significant improvement from 7 cents reported in the year-ago period.  EL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 146.8%, on average. The cosmetics giant delivered an earnings surprise of 102.1% in the last reported quarter.

For fiscal 2024, the consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $15.57 billion, which indicates a decline of 2.1% from the previous year’s reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS is pinned at $2.21, suggesting a 36.1% year-over-year decline.

Things to Consider

Robust online business and strength in emerging markets have been working in favor of The Estee Lauder Companies. The company has been implementing new technology and digital experiences, including online booking for each store appointment, omni-channel loyalty programs and high-touch mobile services. These initiatives and EL’s digital-first mindset have been aiding its online sales. In its last earnings call, management highlighted that it is strategically integrating AI across its global brands to increase traditional strengths and improve customer experiences.

The Estee Lauder Companies has a strong presence in emerging markets, where demand appears to be growing. The company derives significant revenues from emerging markets like Thailand, India, Russia and Brazil. This encourages it to make distributional, digital and marketing investments in these countries. Upsides like these are likely to aid EL’s upcoming quarterly results.

Additionally, the company’s Profit Recovery Plan, aimed at fortifying profitability, fostering accelerated sales growth and enhancing operational agility, bodes well. This plan is tailored to improve gross margins, streamline costs and lower overhead expenses, while increasing investments in pivotal consumer-facing endeavors.  

However, The Estee Lauder Companies continues to operate in a challenging macroeconomic environment and amid geopolitical tensions prevalent across certain parts of the world. The company also remains exposed to the dangers of unfavorable currency headwinds. These are likely to hurt EL’s fiscal fourth-quarter results to some extent.

For fiscal 2024, management projects a net sales decline of 2-3%.  Organic net sales are anticipated to decline 1-2%.  The annual operating margin is likely to range between 9% and 9.5%, reflecting a contraction from the previous year's figure of 11.4%. Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the band of $2.14-$2.24, suggesting a decline from $3.46 reported in fiscal 2023.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for The Estee Lauder Companies this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

The Estee Lauder Companies has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of -7.62% at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are three companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time around.

Ollie's Bargain (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is likely to register an earnings beat when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS of 78 cents implies an increase of 16.4% from the year-ago reported number.

Ollie's Bargain’s revenues are expected to have improved year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $562.4 million, which suggests an increase of 9.3% from the prior-year quarter’s level. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.4%, on average.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COST’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $80.1 billion, which suggests growth of 1.4% from the year-ago quarter’s registered figure.

The consensus estimate for Costco’s earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at $5.02. The consensus mark for earnings suggests growth of 3.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. COST delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.3%.

Burlington Stores (BURL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BURL’s quarterly earnings has increased a penny in the past 30 days to 93 cents. The consensus mark for earnings indicates a 55% surge from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.41 billion, which calls for a rise of 10.9% from the top line reported in the year-ago quarter. BURL delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 21.7%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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