Back to top

Image: Bigstock

COTY Gears Up for Q4 Earnings Release: Things to Keep in Mind

Read MoreHide Full Article

Coty Inc. (COTY - Free Report) is likely to register top- and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings on Aug 20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 1.8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for COTY’s fiscal 2024 revenues is pegged at $6.1 billion, indicating a 10.4% increase from the year-ago period’s reported figure. 

Although the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has moved down by a penny in the past seven days to 4 cents per share, the projection indicates growth from 1 cent reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for COTY’s fiscal 2024 earnings is pegged at 43 cents per share, indicating an 18.9% decline from the year-ago period’s reported figure. COTY has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 22.2%, on average.

Factors to Consider

Coty has been benefiting from strong momentum in the global beauty market. It is experiencing growth in its core categories, thanks to its powerful brands, new product launches and early successes in key areas. The company’s strategic partnerships are also enhancing its performance. The emphasis on key strategies, such as boosting e-commerce and Direct-to-Consumer channels, is promising. Furthermore, management is dedicated to improving cost efficiency through the All In to Win transformation program. 

For the fiscal 2024, management anticipates like-for-like (LFL) revenue growth at the higher end of its guidance of 9-11% growth. This includes expectations for low-to-mid single-digit percentage LFL revenue growth in the fiscal fourth quarter. Our model suggests LFL revenue growth of 4.9% and 11% in the fourth quarter and the fiscal 2024, respectively.

Management expects adjusted EBITDA margin expansion at the higher end of its guidance of 10-30 basis points (bps) with a modest gross margin expansion in the year. COTY expects fiscal 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS), excluding the equity swap, at the upper end of its guidance of 44-47 cents, reflecting growth toward the higher end of the 16-25% range.

Coty Price and EPS Surprise

 

Coty Price and EPS Surprise

Coty price-eps-surprise | Coty Quote

 

Yet, the firm has been battling the rising cost of sales for a while now. Management expects advertising and consumer promotions (A&CP) spending in the high 20-percentage level of sales in the fiscal 2024. Such a rise in costs and expenses is likely to have put pressure on the company’s profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Coty this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Coty carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of -31.33%.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are three companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time around.

Ollie's Bargain (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is likely to register an earnings beat when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS of 78 cents suggests an increase of 16.4% from the year-ago reported number.

Ollie's Bargain’s revenues are expected to have improved year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $562.4 million, indicating an increase of 9.3% from the prior-year quarter’s level. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.4%, on average.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register top- and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COST’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $80.1 billion, suggesting growth of 1.4% from the year-ago quarter’s registered figure.

The consensus estimate for Costco’s earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at $5.02. The consensus mark for earnings suggests growth of 3.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. COST delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.3%.

Burlington Stores (BURL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is expected to register top- and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BURL’s quarterly earnings has increased by a penny in the past 30 days to 93 cents. The consensus mark for earnings indicates a 55% surge from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.41 billion, calling for a rise of 10.9% from the top line reported in the year-ago quarter. BURL delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 21.7%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Published in