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Nucor (NUE) Down 11.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Nucor (NUE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 11.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Nucor due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Nucor's Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates in Q2

Nucor reported earnings of $2.68 per share in the second quarter of 2024, down from earnings of $5.81 in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.31.

The company recorded net sales of roughly $8.08 billion, down around 15% year over year. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.61 billion.

Operating Figures

Total sales tons to outside customers for steel mills in the second quarter were 4,617,000 tons, down 3% year over year. The figure lagged our estimate of 4,641,000 tons.

The average sales price for steel mills was $1,051 per ton in the quarter. The metric was above our estimate of $958 per ton.

Overall operating rates at the company’s steel mills fell to 75% in second-quarter 2024 from 84% in the year-ago quarter.

Segment Highlights

In the said quarter, the steel mill segment experienced a decline in earnings compared with the first quarter’s tally. The downside was primarily due to lower average selling prices and, to a lesser extent, decreased volumes.

The steel products segment saw a reduction in earnings in the second quarter compared with the first quarter’s levels. Lower average selling prices caused the downtick. However, increased volumes somewhat mitigated this.

The raw materials segment saw a rise in earnings in the second quarter compared with the first quarter’s figure, driven by the improved profitability of direct reduced iron facilities.

Financial Position

Cash and cash equivalents were roughly $4.64 billion at the end of the quarter, down around 14% year over year. Long-term debt was around $5.65 billion, down 14.7% year over year.

The company repurchased around 2.9 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $170.70 per share during the reported quarter.

Outlook

Nucor anticipates a decline in earnings for the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter. The primary factor behind this expected decline is the projected drop in earnings from the steel mills segment, mainly due to lower average selling prices. The company projects a reduction in earnings in the steel products segment in third-quarter 2024, also due to lower average selling prices. Earnings in the raw materials segment are likewise expected to decline in the third quarter compared with the second quarter’s figure.
 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -25.17% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Nucor has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Nucor has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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