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Fortinet Stock Up 30.3% YTD: Can Cybersecurity Boom Fuel More Growth?

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Fortinet (FTNT - Free Report) , a leading cybersecurity firm, has seen its stock surge an impressive 30.3% year to date, outpacing the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 20.2% and many of its tech sector peers. This remarkable performance has caught the attention of investors and analysts alike, prompting questions about the sustainability of this growth and whether the ongoing cybersecurity boom can propel the stock even higher.

This robust performance comes amid a growing focus on digital security, as organizations worldwide grapple with increasingly sophisticated cyber threats. Fortinet maintains a leading position in the network security market, with its integrated security fabric approach resonating well with enterprise customers. Additionally, Fortinet's focus on innovation and R&D investment positions it favorably to capitalize on emerging cybersecurity trends, such as secure access service edge and zero-trust network access.

Year-to-date Performance

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AI & Innovation: FTNT Stock's Key to Cybersecurity Lead

The ongoing digital transformation across industries has amplified the need for comprehensive cybersecurity solutions. As businesses shift more operations online, the demand for Fortinet's advanced security products and services has seen a significant uptick.

The company's strong market position has translated into an impressive financial performance. In the second quarter of 2024, Fortinet reported revenues of $1.43 billion, a 10.9% year-over-year increase driven by strong growth in services revenues. Fortinet projects 2024 revenues between $5.8 billion and $5.9 billion and non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 30-31.5%. Non-GAAP earnings per share is anticipated between $2.13 and $2.19.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 revenues is pegged at $5.85 billion, suggesting 10.2% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for earnings has moved north by 13.6% to $2 per share over the past 30 days.

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Fortinet's success also stems from its innovative approach to cybersecurity. The company's FortiOS operating system and Security Fabric architecture have been well-received in the market, offering integrated protection across various digital environments. This holistic approach addresses the complexities of modern cybersecurity challenges, incorporating key products such as the FortiGate next-generation firewall, FortiWeb Web Application Firewall and FortiMail Email Security solutions.

Fortinet's commitment to innovation is evident in its development of cutting-edge technologies like AI-powered FortiGuard Labs and FortiAI, a GenAI assistant that enhances threat investigation and simplifies network management. These advancements, combined with the scalability and performance of Fortinet's products, have garnered trust from enterprises, service providers and government organizations worldwide.

The company's strategic positioning and innovative approach have set the stage for robust growth in a rapidly expanding cybersecurity market, which is projected to reach $500.7 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 12.3% from 2023 to 2030, according to a Grand View Research report. This sustained growth in the sector could provide a favorable backdrop for Fortinet's continued expansion.

Can FTNT Stock Justify Its Premium in a Competitive Market?

Skeptics caution that Fortinet's current valuation may be stretched, and the stock could be vulnerable to a correction if growth rates slow down or competition intensifies. Fortinet's main competitors are Palo Alto Networks (PANW - Free Report) , Cisco Systems (CSCO - Free Report) , Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP - Free Report) , CrowdStrike and Zscaler. Each of these companies has its own strengths and focus areas within cybersecurity. 

Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as potential economic slowdowns or shifts in corporate IT spending could impact Fortinet's growth trajectory. The company's ability to navigate these potential headwinds will be crucial in determining its stock performance in the coming months.

Valuation-wise, Fortinet's premium pricing is evident. Its trailing 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 10.6 is way ahead of the Zacks Internet Software industry average of 3.09. This elevated valuation suggests high growth expectations from investors but also implies increased risk. Fortinet will need to maintain its technological edge and continue delivering value to its customers to stay ahead of the curve.

FTNT’s P/S TTM Ratio Depicts Stretched Valuation

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Conclusion

The cybersecurity market is expected to continue growing as organizations prioritize digital security in an increasingly complex threat landscape, making the stock worth buying in the near term. Fortinet’s comprehensive product portfolio and strong customer relationships position it well to benefit from this trend. 

Fortinet currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Fortinet's year-to-date performance has been undeniably strong. The company's strategic positioning in the rapidly growing cybersecurity market, coupled with its innovative product lineup and strong financial performance, is likely to drive continued growth and market leadership.

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