It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT Quick QuoteALGT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 14.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Earnings Beat at Allegiant in Q2

Allegiant’s second-quarter 2024 earnings of $1.77 per share beat Zacks Consensus Estimate of 84 cents but declined 59.3% year over year. Operating revenues of $666.3 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $659 million but decreased 2.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Passenger revenues, which accounted for the bulk (89.2%) of the top line, fell 7.5% on a year-over-year basis. Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) for scheduled service fell 4% year over year in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) declined 1.6% from the year-ago number. Load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) declined to 84.7% from 86.9% in the reported quarter, as traffic decline was more than the capacity contraction.

For third-quarter 2024, ASM (for scheduled service) is expected to increase 1.3% on a year-over-year basis. Operating margin (excluding vendor outage) is expected to be between -1.5% and -3.5%. Loss per share (airline) is anticipated to be in the 75 cents-$1.75 range.  Fuel cost per gallon is expected to be $2.80.

For 2024, ASM (for scheduled service) is now expected to increase 1.5% on a year-over-year basis. Interest expenses are forecast to be in the range of $130-$140 million. Under airline capex, aircraft, engines, induction costs and pre-delivery deposits are expected to be in the $180-200 million. Capitalized deferred heavy maintenance is envisioned to be between $80 million and $90 million. Other airline capital expenditures are expected to be between $120 and $130 million. The company now aims to end 2024 with a fleet size of 124 as opposed to 126 anticipated earlier.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -2275.62% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Allegiant Travel has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Allegiant Travel is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, United Airlines (UAL Quick QuoteUAL - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 0.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2024 more than a month ago.

United reported revenues of $14.99 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.7%. EPS of $4.14 for the same period compares with $5.03 a year ago.

United is expected to post earnings of $3.02 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -17.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.1%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for United. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.