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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Down 5.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott Vacations Worldwide due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Marriott Vacations Q2 Earnings & Revenues Lag Estimates
Marriott Vacations reported dismal second-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues missing their respective Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and the bottom line declined on a year-over-year basis.
VAC witnessed a mixed performance in the quarter. Rentals exceeded expectations, but lower VPGs negatively impacted contract sales. Travel demand remains strong, with resorts achieving 90% occupancy, a 5% increase in tours and flat owner VPGs compared with last year’s tally.
However, first-time buyer VPGs declined year over year. Recovery in Maui is slower than anticipated. Owing to this, the company lowered its contract sales guidance for 2024.
Earnings & Revenue Discussion
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.99 by 44.7%. In the year-ago quarter, it reported an adjusted EPS of $2.19.
Quarterly revenues of $1,140 million missed the consensus mark of $1,217 million by 6.3%. The top line declined 3% on a year-over-year basis.
Segmental Performances
Vacation Ownership: The segment’s revenues totaled $1.08 billion, down 3.1% from $1.1 billion reported in the prior-year quarter.
VAC’s Vacation Ownership contract sales inched down 1% year over year to $449 million. The downside was primarily caused by a 6% decline in VPG and the impact of the Maui wildfires. Excluding Maui, contract sales rose 3% year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $180 million, down 26% from $245 million reported in the year-ago quarter.
Exchange & Third-Party Management: Segmental revenues of $58 million decreased 10.8% year over year. Revenues, excluding cost reimbursements, declined 9% year over year.
The interval of international active members dropped 2% year over year to 1.5 million. Average revenues per member declined 3% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted EBITDA was $25 million, down 22% year over year.
Corporate and Other Results
General and administrative costs totaled $54 million, down 15% year over year.
Expenses & EBITDA
Total expenses increased 3.5% year over year to $1.04 billion from $1 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $157 million, down 29% from $222 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
Balance Sheet
As of Jun 30, the company’s cash and cash equivalents were $206 million compared with $248 million as of Dec 31, 2023.
At the end of the second quarter, the company had $3.1 billion of corporate debt and $2.1 billion of non-recourse debt related to its securitized notes receivable.
Updated 2024 Outlook
For 2024, management anticipates contract sales in the range of $1,790-$1,825 million, down from the previous expectation of $1,880-$1,930 million. Adjusted free cash flow is projected in the range of $300-$340 million, down from the prior projection of $400-$450 million. Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be between $685 million and $715 million, down from the previous anticipation of $760 million and $800 million.
Adjusted EPS are expected to be between $5.90 and $6.45, down from the prior estimate of $7.45 and $8.16.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -13.18% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Marriott Vacations Worldwide is part of the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry. Over the past month, Royal Caribbean (RCL - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 12.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2024 more than a month ago.
Royal Caribbean reported revenues of $4.11 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +16.7%. EPS of $3.21 for the same period compares with $1.82 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Royal Caribbean is expected to post earnings of $4.98 per share, indicating a change of +29.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed 0% over the last 30 days.
Royal Caribbean has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Down 5.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott Vacations Worldwide due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Marriott Vacations Q2 Earnings & Revenues Lag Estimates
Marriott Vacations reported dismal second-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues missing their respective Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and the bottom line declined on a year-over-year basis.
VAC witnessed a mixed performance in the quarter. Rentals exceeded expectations, but lower VPGs negatively impacted contract sales. Travel demand remains strong, with resorts achieving 90% occupancy, a 5% increase in tours and flat owner VPGs compared with last year’s tally.
However, first-time buyer VPGs declined year over year. Recovery in Maui is slower than anticipated. Owing to this, the company lowered its contract sales guidance for 2024.
Earnings & Revenue Discussion
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.99 by 44.7%. In the year-ago quarter, it reported an adjusted EPS of $2.19.
Quarterly revenues of $1,140 million missed the consensus mark of $1,217 million by 6.3%. The top line declined 3% on a year-over-year basis.
Segmental Performances
Vacation Ownership: The segment’s revenues totaled $1.08 billion, down 3.1% from $1.1 billion reported in the prior-year quarter.
VAC’s Vacation Ownership contract sales inched down 1% year over year to $449 million. The downside was primarily caused by a 6% decline in VPG and the impact of the Maui wildfires. Excluding Maui, contract sales rose 3% year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $180 million, down 26% from $245 million reported in the year-ago quarter.
Exchange & Third-Party Management: Segmental revenues of $58 million decreased 10.8% year over year. Revenues, excluding cost reimbursements, declined 9% year over year.
The interval of international active members dropped 2% year over year to 1.5 million. Average revenues per member declined 3% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted EBITDA was $25 million, down 22% year over year.
Corporate and Other Results
General and administrative costs totaled $54 million, down 15% year over year.
Expenses & EBITDA
Total expenses increased 3.5% year over year to $1.04 billion from $1 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $157 million, down 29% from $222 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
Balance Sheet
As of Jun 30, the company’s cash and cash equivalents were $206 million compared with $248 million as of Dec 31, 2023.
At the end of the second quarter, the company had $3.1 billion of corporate debt and $2.1 billion of non-recourse debt related to its securitized notes receivable.
Updated 2024 Outlook
For 2024, management anticipates contract sales in the range of $1,790-$1,825 million, down from the previous expectation of $1,880-$1,930 million. Adjusted free cash flow is projected in the range of $300-$340 million, down from the prior projection of $400-$450 million. Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be between $685 million and $715 million, down from the previous anticipation of $760 million and $800 million.
Adjusted EPS are expected to be between $5.90 and $6.45, down from the prior estimate of $7.45 and $8.16.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -13.18% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Marriott Vacations Worldwide is part of the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry. Over the past month, Royal Caribbean (RCL - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 12.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2024 more than a month ago.
Royal Caribbean reported revenues of $4.11 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +16.7%. EPS of $3.21 for the same period compares with $1.82 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Royal Caribbean is expected to post earnings of $4.98 per share, indicating a change of +29.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed 0% over the last 30 days.
Royal Caribbean has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.