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Why Is National Fuel Gas (NFG) Up 0.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for National Fuel Gas (NFG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is National Fuel Gas due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

National Fuel Gas Q3 Earnings Beat, Sales Decline Y/Y

National Fuel Gas Company reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 adjusted operating earnings of 99 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 92 cents by 7.6%. However, the bottom line decreased 2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $1.01.

GAAP earnings for the quarter were 59 cents per share, down 41% from the year-ago level of $1.00.

Total Revenues

NFG reported sales of $417.4 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $528 million by 20.9%. The top line also declined 2.6% from the prior-year recorded figure of $428.7 million.

Segmental Revenues

Utility: Revenues totaled $124.8 million, down 13.6% from $144.5 million in the year-ago quarter.

Exploration and Production and Other Revenues: Revenues totaled $220.9 million, up 2% from $216.6 million in the year-ago quarter.

Pipeline and Storage and Gathering: Revenues amounted to $71.7 million, implying a 6.1% increase from $67.6 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Highlights of the Release

Total operating expenses increased 70.7% to $468.9 million year over year. This was primarily due to higher operation and maintenance expenses and higher depreciation and amortization.

Operating loss was $51.4 million against an income of $154.1 million in the year-ago quarter.

Interest expenses totaled $32.9 million, up 25.1% from the year-ago figure of $26.3 million.

The Exploration & Production segment produced 96.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, up 2% year over year despite approximately 5.6 Bcf of price-related curtailments in the quarter.

Financial Highlights

As of Jun 30, 2024, National Fuel Gas had cash and temporary cash investments of $81.4 million compared with $55.4 million as of Sep 30, 2023.

Net cash provided by operating activities for the first nine months of fiscal 2024 totaled $0.87 billion compared with $1.06 billion in the year-ago period.

Capital expenditures amounted to $684.2 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2024 compared with $727.7 million in the year-ago period.

Guidance

NFG narrowed its fiscal 2024 earnings projection to the range of $5.00-$5.10 per share from the previously anticipated $4.75-$5.05. The company expects its fiscal 2025 earnings to be in the range of $5.75-$6.25 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $6.05 per share.

The company expects its capital expenditure for fiscal 2024 and 2025 to be in the range of $890-970 million and $885-970 million, respectively.

It lowered its production volume expectation to the band of 390-400 Bcf from the previously anticipated 390-405 Bcf, and the same for 2025 is estimated to be in the range of 400-420 Bcf.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, National Fuel Gas has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, National Fuel Gas has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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