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Albemarle (ALB) Down 1.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Albemarle (ALB - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Albemarle due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Albemarle's Earnings Miss Estimates in Q2, Revenues Beat

Albemarle logged a loss of $1.96 per share in the second quarter of 2024. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported earnings of $5.52 per share.

Adjusted earnings in the reported quarter came in at 4 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents.

Revenues fell roughly 40% year over year to roughly $1.43 billion in the quarter. However, the metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.4 billion. The top line was hurt by lower prices, partly offset by the volume growth in the Energy Storage unit. Lower lithium market pricing impacted the company's results in the quarter.

Segment Highlights

Sales from the Energy Storage unit fell around 53% year over year to $830.1 million. It beat the consensus estimate of $822.6 million. The decline in sales was attributed to reduced pricing. However, sales volumes increased driven by the ramp-up of lithium projects, including the La Negra expansion in Chile and the processing plant in Qinzhou, China.

The Specialties segment recorded sales of $334.6 million, down around 10% year over year. It was above the consensus estimate of $309.9 million. Lower pricing impacted sales, partly offset by increased volumes.

The Ketjen unit recorded revenues of $265.7 million in the reported quarter, up roughly 13% year over year. It was above the consensus estimate of $259.6 million. Higher volumes aided sales, partly masked by lower pricing.

Financial Position

Albemarle ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of roughly $1.83 billion, down around 11% sequentially. Long-term debt was around $3.52 billion, flat sequentially.

Outlook

Albemarle has lowered its adjusted EBITDA outlook for the Specialties unit factoring in slower-than-expected market recovery and higher logistics costs related to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It now sees an adjusted EBITDA of $210-$260 million for the segment. 

Capital expenditures for 2024 are forecast to be at the top end of the range of $1.7-$1.8 billion. Depreciation and amortization are projected to be in the band of $580-$630 million. Corporate costs are projected in the range of $60-$90 million while interest and financing expenses are expected to be between $140 million and $170 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -106.55% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Albemarle has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Albemarle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Albemarle belongs to the Zacks Chemical - Diversified industry. Another stock from the same industry, Methanex (MEOH - Free Report) , has gained 1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2024.

Methanex reported revenues of $920 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2.1%. EPS of $0.62 for the same period compares with $0.60 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Methanex is expected to post earnings of $0.40 per share, indicating a change of +1900% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +20.9% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Methanex. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.


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