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Why Is Goodyear (GT) Down 11.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Goodyear (GT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 11.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Goodyear due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Goodyear Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates

Goodyear reported second-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 19 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents. The company had incurred a loss of 34 cents in the year-ago quarter.

The company generated net revenues of $4.57 billion, which declined 6.1% on a year-over-year basis and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.79 billion due to lower replacement volume.

In the reported quarter, tire volume was 40.1 million units, down 1.7% from the year-ago period's levels.

Segmental Performance

In the reported quarter, the Americas segment generated revenues of $2.69 billion, which declined 8.2% year over year and missed our estimate of $2.82 billion due to lower replacement volume and unfavorable price/mix. The segment registered an operating income of $241 million, which surged 134% from the year-ago period's figures. The operating margin benefited from lower transportation costs, Goodyear Forward initiatives and favorable net price/mix. The figure surpassed our expectation of $224.4 million.

Revenues in the Europe, Middle East and Africa segment were $1.28 billion, down 4.6% from the year-ago period's levels due to the adverse impact of foreign currency exchange rates and lower replacement volume. The figure also missed our estimate of $1.35 billion. The operating income for the segment was $35 million, which rose 284.2% on a year-over-year basis due to favorable net price/mix, a net gain on insurance recoveries and the Goodyear Forward plan.

Revenues in the Asia Pacific segment rose 1.2% year over year to $594 million due to higher original equipment volume but missed our estimate of $615.3 million. The segment’s operating profit was $63 million, up 57.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure due to favorable net price/mix, higher volume and benefits from the Goodyear Forward plan. The figure, however, missed our estimate of $65.2 million.

Financial Position

Selling, general & administrative expenses rose to $731 million from $708 million in the year-ago period.

Goodyear had cash and cash equivalents of $789 million as of Jun 30, 2024, down from $902 million as of Dec 31, 2023.

Long-term debt and finance leases amounted to $6.83 billion as of Jun 30, 2024, the same as of Dec 31, 2023.

Capital expenditure in the quarter was $634 million, up from $536 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Updated 2024 Outlook

Based on recent commodity rates, the company expects a benefit of $260 million on raw material costs in 2024, down from the previous estimate of a benefit of $325-$350 million.

Capital expenditures are expected to be $1.25 billion compared with the previous estimate of $1.2-$1.3 billion.

For the full year, interest expenses are estimated between $510 million and $530 million, down from the previously guided range of $520-$540 million. Depreciation and amortization is expected to be $1 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -31.87% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Goodyear has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Goodyear has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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