It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Antero Midstream Corporation (AM Quick QuoteAM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 4.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Antero Midstream due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Antero Midstream Q2 Earnings Top on Gathering Volumes

Antero Midstream Corporation reported second-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 23 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 22 cents. The bottom line also improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of 22 cents.

Total quarterly revenues of $270 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $268 million. The top line also increased from $258 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.

The strong quarterly results can be attributed to an increase in high-pressure gathering volumes and relatively consistent compression volumes.

Operational Performance

Average daily compression volumes were 3,246 million cubic feet (MMcf/d) compared with 3,251 MMcf/d in the year-ago quarter. The reported figure was, however, lower than our estimate of 3,379 MMcf/d. On a per-Mcf basis, the compression fee was 21 cents, in line with the prior-year quarter’s number.

High-pressure gathering volumes totaled 2,994 MMcf/d, up from the year-ago period’s level of 2,922 MMcf/d. The figure was also higher than our estimate of 2,959 MMcf/d. On a per-Mcf basis, the average gathering high-pressure fee was 22 cents, higher than the year-ago quarter’s 21 cents. The reported figure also beat our estimate of 21 cents.

Low-pressure gathering volumes averaged 3,258 MMcf/d compared with 3,304 MMcf/d in the June quarter of 2023.  The figure came in lower than our estimate of 3,369 MMcf/d. On a per-Mcf basis, the average gathering low-pressure fee was 36 cents, higher than the prior-year quarter’s level of 35 cents. The reported figure was in line with our estimate.

Freshwater delivery volumes were registered at 81 MBbls/d, down approximately 23% from the prior-year quarter’s figure of 105 MBbls/d. On a per-barrel basis, the average freshwater distribution fee was $4.31 compared with $4.21 a year ago. The figure was also higher than our estimate of $4.22.

Operating Expenses

Direct operating expenses amounted to $56.4 million, up from $52.6 million recorded a year ago.

Antero Midstream’s total operating expenses totaled $117 million, up from $112.8 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2023.

Balance Sheet

As of Jun 30, 2024, the company had no cash and cash equivalents. As of the same date, the company had $3,816.6 million of long-term debt.

Outlook

For 2024, Antero Midstream projected adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1,020-$1,060 million, indicating a 5% increase from the 2023 level at the midpoint. The company projects free cash flows after dividends to be in the band of $235-$275 million for 2024. The capital budget for 2024 is expected to be in the $150-$170 million range, indicating a 14% decrease from the 2023 level at the midpoint.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Antero Midstream has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Antero Midstream has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.