Back to top

Image: Shutterstock

Centene Stock Rises 29% in a Year: Evaluating the Road Ahead

Read MoreHide Full Article

Shares of Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) have risen 28.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s 20.8% growth. The Medical sector and the S&P 500 composite index grew 11.5% and 24.9%, respectively, in the same time frame. With a market capitalization of $41.5 billion, the average volume of shares traded in the past three months was 3.7 million.

Centene remains well-poised for growth on the back of a sound membership base, Medicaid contract wins, growing Marketplace business and expanding cash reserves. 

The health insurer, presently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has a decent track record of beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missing the mark once, the average surprise being 9.64%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Robust Growth Prospects of CNC

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centene’s 2024 earnings is pegged at $6.84 per share, indicating a 2.4% increase from the 2023 reported figure. The consensus mark for revenues is pinned at $156.3 billion, implying 1.5% growth from the year-ago figure. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at $7.39 per share, which implies a 8.1% improvement from the 2024 estimate. The consensus mark for revenues is pinned at $161.9 billion, implying a 3.6% rise from the 2024 estimate.

Can CNC Retain the Momentum?

Centene's revenue growth is primarily driven by a strong customer base in its Medicaid and Medicare businesses, leading to increased premiums. This is favorable as premiums are the largest contributor to a health insurer’s top line. 

The strength of these businesses has resulted in multiple contract wins and renewals, which further support membership growth. Centene’s specialized services have enabled it to build and strengthen relationships with members and providers, enhancing care for those in government-sponsored programs. The aging U.S. population continues to support the demand for Medicare plans, which is likely to sustain the high demand for Centene’s offerings in the days ahead.

In the first half of 2024, Centene's premium and service revenues grew 3.6% year over year. Management projects premium and service revenues to be between $141 billion and $143 billion for 2024. The company secured Medicaid contracts from state authorities in Kansas, Michigan and New Hampshire this year. Its Commercial Marketplace business had an extensive membership base of 4.4 million members as of June 30, 2024, which advanced 33.6% year over year. 

Centene pursues mergers and acquisitions to enhance its capabilities and expand its national footprint while it divests underperforming businesses to focus on its Managed Care operations and bring down the mounting debt burden. The company’s financial strength is further evidenced by its growing cash reserves. As of June 30, 2024, cash and cash equivalents increased 2.4% from the 2023-end level. It generated operating cash flow of $1.7 billion in the first half of 2024. 

CNC boasts an impressive VGM Score of A. VGM Score helps identify stocks with the most attractive value, the best growth and the most promising momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked stocks in the Medical space are HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA - Free Report) , The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG - Free Report) and LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. (LMAT - Free Report) . While HCA Healthcare currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), The Ensign Group and LeMaitre Vascular carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

HCA Healthcare’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 8.24%. The consensus estimate for HCA’s 2024 earnings indicates a rise of 18.4% from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for revenues indicates growth of 8.9% from the year-ago figure. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HCA’s earnings has moved 1.7% north in the past 30 days. Shares of HCA Healthcare have gained 40.9% in the past year.

The Ensign Group’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 1.40%. The consensus estimate for ENSG’s 2024 earnings indicates a rise of 14.1% from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for revenues implies an improvement of 13.1% from the year-ago figure. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ENSG’s earnings has moved 0.4% north in the past 30 days. Shares of Ensign Group have risen 52.7% in the past year.  

LeMaitre Vascular’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 8.87%. The consensus estimate for LMAT’s 2024 earnings indicates an improvement of 37% from the year-ago figure. The consensus mark for revenues implies growth of 13% from the year-ago figure. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LMAT’s earnings has moved 4.5% north in the past 30 days. Shares of LeMaitre Vascular have rallied 55.2% in the past year.

Published in