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Carlyle (CG) Down 2.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Carlyle Group (CG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carlyle due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Carlyle Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates

The Carlyle Group reported second-quarter 2024 post-tax distributable earnings per share of 78 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 84 cents. The bottom line compared unfavorably with 88 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

Results were affected due to a decrease in segment fee and realized performance revenues. However, a rise in assets under management balance and lower expenses offered some support.

Net income attributable to Carlyle was $148.2 million against a net loss of $98.4 million reported in the previous year's quarter.

Revenues & Expenses Decline

Segmental revenues were $788.9 million in the quarter under review, down 19.3% from the year-ago quarter's level. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $842 million.

Total segment fee revenues were down 3.1% year over year to $587.5 million. A fall in transaction and portfolio advisory fees, as well as fee-related performance revenues, led to the decline.  

Realized performance revenues plunged 53.3% to $156.5 million from the prior-year quarter.

Total segmental expenses decreased 24.3% to $445.7 million. The decrease was due to a fall in almost all components of segment expenses, except for depreciation and amortization expense and interest expenses.
Total AUM Rises

As of Jun 30, 2024, total AUM was $434.6 billion, up 13% from the prior-year quarter's figure.

Fee-earning AUM for the reported quarter was $307 billion, up 13% year over year.

Capital Distribution Activities

In the reported quarter, CG repurchased and retired 3.5 million shares of common stock for $178.3 million. As of Jun 30, 2024, $1.1 billion shares remain available under the authorization.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Carlyle has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Carlyle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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