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Boise Cascade (BCC) Down 3.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Boise Cascade (BCC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Boise Cascade due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Boise Cascade Q2 Earnings & Sales Top Estimates, Down Y/Y

Boise Cascade reported decent second-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and sales topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the top and the bottom line declined on a year-over-year basis.

The company's quarterly performance was impacted by weak demand due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainties. Also, lower volumes and reduced prices in the Wood Products segment led to reduced sales.

Despite the current uncertainty in demand, the company expects to achieve solid results in the second half of the year. It aims to provide exceptional value to customers and vendors by leveraging its top-notch manufacturing and distribution network.

Going forward, the company is optimistic about the increasing trajectory of single-family housing starts, given the low supply of existing single-family homes, as this metric is the key driver of its sales. Also, it aims to allocate its capital and ensure shareholders’ value, along with fostering its growth.

Detailed Discussion

Boise Cascade reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.84, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65 by 7.2%. In the year-ago quarter, the company reported adjusted EPS of $3.67.

Quarterly sales of $1.80 billion beat the consensus estimate of $1.73 million by 4% but dropped 1% year over year.

Adjusted EBITDA of $181.2 million was down 18% from the prior-year quarter’s level.

Segmental Analysis

Wood Products: The segment’s sales (including sales to the BMD segment) of $489.8 million were down 8% from the prior-year period’s levels. The downside in sales was due to lower plywood volumes, reduced LVL and I-joist prices (collectively referred to as EWP) and a drop in lumber and byproduct sales. However, increased EWP sales partially offset these declines.

Adjusted EBITDA was $95 million, down 25% from $127 million reported a year ago.

During the quarter, the segment’s costs and expenses — as a percentage of segment sales — increased to 85.1% from 80.4% year over year. The increase in materials, labor and
other operating expenses drove the uptick.

Building Materials Distribution or BMD: Sales in the segment increased 1% year over year to $1.66 billion, primarily driven by sales volume increases of 2%.

The segment’s adjusted EBITDA fell 8% year over year to $97.1 million from $105.9 million.

The segment’s costs and expenses — as a percentage of segment sales — increased to 94.8% from 94.0% year over year. The increase in selling and distribution expenses, along with distribution and amortization, caused the uptick.

Financials

The total liquidity of Boise Cascade, as of Jun 30, 2024, was $1.32 billion, down from $1.35 billion reported at the end of Dec 31, 2023. Total liquidity includes $395.7 million of undrawn committed bank line availability and cash and cash equivalents. At second-quarter 2024 end, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $922.1 million, down from $949.6 million at 2023 end.

Long-term debt was $445.7 million, marginally up from $445.3 million reported at 2023 end.

As of Jun 30, 2024, net cash provided by operations was $169.2 million, down from $290.2 million reported in the year-ago period.

During the first six months of 2024, the company repurchased 677,845 shares of its common stock for a total value of $88.9 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -18.82% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Boise Cascade has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Boise Cascade has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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