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Armstrong World Stock Rises 26% YTD: What's Next for Investors?

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Armstrong World Industries, Inc.’s (AWI - Free Report) shares have gained 26% so far this year, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry’s 12.3% growth and the Zacks Construction sector’s 14.6% increase.

This leading global producer of ceiling systems has been making the most from increased sales of innovative digital platforms such as ProjectWorks and Canopy, moderation of input costs, the acquisitions of 3form and BOK Modern and large federally funded transportation projects. The company’s focus on innovation, particularly in energy-efficient and digital solutions, positions it well for future growth, even amid broader market uncertainties.

AWI stock also outpaced its peers like Owens Corning (OC - Free Report) , Masco (MAS - Free Report) and Quanex Building Products Corporation (NX - Free Report) . OC and MAS gained 7.9% and 16.6%, respectively, but NX plunged 17.3% in the year-to-date period.

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AWI Stock Trades Above 50 and 200-Day Moving Averages

Technical indicators suggest continued strong performance for AWI. Notably, the 50-day SMA continues to read higher than the 200-day SMA, signaling the bullish trend.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Factors Helping AWI Stock to Surge

Innovation & Digital Platforms: AWI's ProjectWorks and Canopy platforms have become central to the company’s growth initiatives. Canopy, which focuses on small business renovation projects, saw a 20% increase in sales year over year in the second quarter of 2024, while ProjectWorks has expanded its reach, resulting in a 52% rise in quoted project values in the first half of 2024. These platforms are enabling AWI to differentiate itself in the marketplace by improving customer engagement and driving higher sales volumes and AUVs.

Stabilizing Market Conditions: Despite challenges in the office sector, where demand had been weak, AWI saw signs of stabilization in the last reported quarter and a modest improvement in its outlook for the remainder of 2024. New construction activity in other verticals, such as healthcare, education, and data centers, remains strong.

Demand for More Decarbonization Solutions: Demand for energy-efficient and decarbonization solutions is on the rise, benefiting Armstrong World as the company focuses on innovative products that address these needs. AWI's new TEMPLOK energy-saving ceiling products, featuring phase change material and mineral fiber tiles, are designed to regulate building temperatures and cut energy costs by up to 15%. This innovation makes these tiles economically attractive, encouraging building owners to replace existing ceilings.

Additionally, AWI’s launch of Low Embodied Carbon (LEC) products, such as the Ultima LEC ceiling tiles, the lowest embodied carbon tiles available, aligns with the growing industry's emphasis on reducing the carbon footprint of commercial buildings. These products not only contribute to energy savings but also support compliance with emerging sustainability standards, such as the proposed LEED v5 guidelines focused on decarbonization.

With increasing regulatory and industry focus on sustainability, AWI is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for solutions that reduce energy use and carbon emissions, bolstered by initiatives like the U.S. Department of Energy's Green Proving Ground program, where AWI’s TEMPLOK product is being tested.

Acquisitions: Armstrong World follows a systematic inorganic strategy to enhance its portfolio. The company has acquired nine companies to expand its capabilities in the Architectural Specialties segment in the past seven years. In April 2024, Armstrong World acquired all the issued and outstanding membership interests in 3form, LLC. Based in Salt Lake City, UT, 3form is a designer and manufacturer of architectural resin and glass products used for specialty walls, partitions and ceilings, with three U.S.-based production and design facilities.

In January 2024, the company solidified a strategic partnership with McKinstry, investing in Overcast Innovations (an early-stage McKinstry venture). This strategic move merges Armstrong World's industry-leading ceiling systems with Overcast’s pioneering modular designs, emphasizing crucial aspects like air quality, lighting, acoustics, and thermal comfort while optimizing energy and construction efficiency.

The integration of 3form and BOK Modern is progressing well, with both acquisitions contributing to growth. 3form, in particular, contributed positively to EBITDA in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA grew 13% in the quarter from a year ago, and adjusted EBITDA margin rose 10 basis points (bps) from the year-ago quarter to 34.3%. This marked five consecutive quarters of year-over-year EBITDA margin expansion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased 17% in the quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of adjusted EPS growth.

AWI Stock’s Estimate Movement & Valuation

From the following chart, it is evident that AWI stock is witnessing upward EPS estimate revisions. The estimated figure depicts 14.1% growth for 2024 from the prior year’s reported levels.
 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research


AWI stock is trading slightly at a premium compared with the industry and higher than its median, reflecting a stretched valuation.

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How to Play Armstrong World Stock?

Armstrong World has been demonstrating strong financial performance and strategic growth, making it a compelling investment opportunity. The ongoing trend of positive EPS estimate revisions indicates that analysts are increasingly optimistic about the company's earnings potential, which often correlates with the stock price appreciation.

Management has also raised its full-year 2024 guidance, with revenues expected to grow between 9% and 11% and adjusted EBITDA anticipated to increase in the range of 10%-13%. Such upward revisions in financial outlooks typically reflect confidence in the company's growth strategy and market positioning. While AWI is trading at a premium compared to its industry peers, this valuation can be justified by its consistent outperformance and robust growth prospects.

Although project delays in the Architectural Specialties segment (largely driven by labor shortages and funding variability for large-scale projects) and softness in renovation markets are challenges, the company's digital platforms, acquisitions, and innovative product offerings have positioned it well to navigate market challenges. Federally funded transportation projects and energy-efficient innovations (like TEMPLOK energy-saving ceilings) are expected to provide sustained growth into 2025 and beyond for this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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