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Why Is Fox (FOXA) Up 5% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Fox (FOXA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Fox due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Fox Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

Fox Corporation reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 90 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.43%. The figure increased 2.3% year over year.

Revenues increased 2% year over year to $3.09 billion. The figure missed the consensus mark by 0.29%.

Affiliate fees (60.1% of total revenues) rose 5% to $1.86 billion, driven primarily by 9% growth in the Television segment.

Advertising revenues (32.6% of total revenues) decreased 0.1% year over year to $1 billion, primarily due to the absence of the prior year’s broadcast of Super Bowl LVII and FIFA Men's World Cup on FOX Sports.

Other revenues (7.3% of total revenues) declined 10.7% year over year to $226 million.

Top-Line Details

Cable Network Programming revenues (46.5% of total revenues) increased 2% year over year to $1.44 billion. Advertising revenues and affiliate fees revenues rose 2.5% and 2%, respectively, year over year. Other revenues dipped 1.6% on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to the timing of sports sublicensing revenues at the national sports networks. 

Television revenues (52.2% of total revenues) increased 1.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to $1.6 billion. Advertising revenues declined 1.3% year over year. Affiliate fees increased 9% year over year, led by higher rates at both the company's owned and operated stations, and third-party FOX affiliates. Other revenues plunged 19.4% year over year, primarily due to a lower volume of third-party content sales.

Operating Details

In fourth-quarter fiscal 2024, operating expenses increased 0.3% year over year to $1.78 billion. As a percentage of revenues, operating expenses contracted 90 basis points (bps) to 57.7%. The rise in expenses was primarily due to costs associated with the UEFA European Championship and CONMEBOL Copa América, along with increased digital investment at Tubi, partially offset by lower programming costs at FOX Entertainment.

Selling, general & administrative (SG&A) expenses rose 3.1% year over year to $539 million. As a percentage of revenues, SG&A expenses expanded 20 bps to 17.4%.

Total adjusted EBITDA increased 5.2% year over year to $773 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 80 bps to 25%.

Cable Network Programming EBITDA rose 20.2% year over year to $703 million. Television reported an adjusted EBITDA of $148 million, down 34.8% year over year.

Balance Sheet

As of Jun 30, 2024, Fox had $4.32 billion in cash and cash equivalents compared with $3.79 billion as of Mar 31, 2024. Long-term debt, as of Jun 30, 2024, was $7.2 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -12.6% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Fox has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Fox has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Fox is part of the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry. Over the past month, Roku (ROKU - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 20.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2024 more than a month ago.

Roku reported revenues of $968.18 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +14.3%. EPS of -$0.24 for the same period compares with -$0.76 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Roku is expected to post a loss of $0.35 per share, indicating a change of +85% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Roku. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.


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