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SM Energy (SM) Down 4.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for SM Energy (SM - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is SM Energy due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

SM Energy Q2 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

SM Energy Company reported second-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of $1.85 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.57. The bottom line also increased from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $1.28.

Total quarterly revenues of $634.5 million increased from $551 million in the year-ago quarter and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $630 million.

The strong quarterly results can be attributed to increased oil equivalent production volumes and high average realized price per Boe.

Operational Performance

Production

SM Energy’s second-quarter production totaled 158.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d) (almost 46% oil), up nearly 3% from the year-ago level of 154.4 MBoe/d. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same was pinned at 157 MBoe/d.

Oil production increased 13% year over year to 72.7 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d). The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 69.5 MBbls/d.

The company produced 354 million cubic feet per day of natural gas in the quarter, down 4% year over year. Natural gas liquids contributed 26.8 MBbls/d to the total production volume, which fell 5% on a year-over-year basis.

Realized Prices

Before the effects of derivative settlements, the average realized price per Boe was $43.92 compared with $38.89 in the year-ago quarter. The average realized oil price jumped 12% to $80.48 per barrel, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same was pegged at $79.74.

The average realized price of natural gas declined 32% year over year to $1.40 per thousand cubic feet, while that for natural gas liquids rose 10% to $22.86 per barrel.

Costs & Expenses

On the cost front, unit lease operating expenses decreased 3% year over year to $4.82 per Boe. General and administrative expenses increased 10% to $2.16 per Boe from the prior-year level of $1.96. Transportation expenses slipped 33% to $1.94 per Boe.

Total hydrocarbon production expenses in the quarter were $136.6 million compared with the year-ago level of $145.6 million. Total exploration expenses were $17.1 million, higher than the year-ago figure of $14.9 million.

Capex

The capital expenditure in the June-end quarter totaled $322.7 million. Adjusted free cash flow amounted to $98.4 million.

Balance Sheet

As of Jun 30, 2024, SM Energy had cash and cash equivalents of $487.9 million and a net debt of $1.10 billion.

Guidance

For the third quarter of 2024, SM Energy expects production to be in the range of 15.0-15.4 MMBoe. Of the total production, oil will likely contribute 45-46%. Capital expenditures (net of the change in capital accruals), excluding acquisitions, are estimated to be in the $300-$310 million range.

For full-year 2024, the company anticipates net production volume to remain unchanged in the range of 57-60 MMBoe. Oil is now anticipated to account for 45% of the total production (previously 44%). The full-year capital expenditure guidance, excluding acquisitions and change in capital accruals, remains unchanged in the range of $1.14-$1.18 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.16% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, SM Energy has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, SM Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

SM Energy belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry. Another stock from the same industry, Comstock Resources (CRK - Free Report) , has gained 0.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2024.

Comstock reported revenues of $246.83 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -14.4%. EPS of -$0.20 for the same period compares with $0 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Comstock is expected to post a loss of $0.10 per share, indicating a change of -350% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -73.9% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Comstock. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.


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