Back to top

Image: Bigstock

How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Consumer Staples Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

Read MoreHide Full Article

Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider General Mills?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. General Mills (GIS - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) seven days from its next quarterly earnings release on September 18, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.07 a share.

By taking the percentage difference between the $1.07 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.05 Zacks Consensus Estimate, General Mills has an Earnings ESP of +1.92%. Investors should also know that GIS is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

GIS is one of just a large database of Consumer Staples stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Altria (MO - Free Report) .

Slated to report earnings on October 24, 2024, Altria holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $1.36 a share 43 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria is $1.36, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.3%.

GIS and MO's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - free report >>

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) - free report >>

Published in