Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider United Airlines?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. United Airlines (UAL Quick QuoteUAL - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.25 a share, just 29 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 15, 2024.

United Airlines' Earnings ESP sits at +6.73%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $3.25 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.05. UAL is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

UAL is part of a big group of Transportation stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Alaska Air Group (ALK Quick QuoteALK - Free Report) as well.

Alaska Air Group is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 17, 2024. ALK's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.90 a share 31 days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alaska Air Group is $1.64, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +15.78%.

UAL and ALK's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>