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AUM Growth, Acquisitions to Support BlackRock Amid Cost Woes

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BlackRock’s (BLK - Free Report) robust assets under management (AUM) balance and its efforts to restructure the equity business will likely keep aiding revenue growth. However, persistently rising expenses (mainly due to higher administration costs) are expected to hurt the company’s bottom line to an extent.

BlackRock’s Key Growth Drivers

Strategic Buyouts: Given a solid balance sheet and liquidity position, BlackRock has been engaging in acquisitions — both domestic and overseas. In June 2024, the company agreed to acquire Preqin for $3.2 billion, which marks a milestone in its strategy to enhance its private markets capabilities by integrating investments, technology and data across the entire portfolio.

In May, BlackRock completed the deal to acquire the remaining 75% stake in SpiderRock, which will enhance its separately managed accounts offerings. In January, it agreed to acquire Global Infrastructure Partners.

Likewise, in 2023, the company acquired London-based Kreos Capital and agreed to form a joint venture with Jio Financial Services Limited, named Jio BlackRock.

While the acquisition of Barclays Global Investors in 2009 remains the biggest deal by far, the above-mentioned buyouts, along with the past ones, will help the company expand its footprint and market share.

Robust AUM Balance: A steadily improving AUM balance has been supporting BlackRock’s revenue growth. Over the five years ended 2023, the company’s AUM witnessed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9%. Driven by the rise in AUM, revenues (GAAP basis) witnessed a CAGR of 4.7% over the same period.

Given the company’s efforts to strengthen iShares and ETF operations, and its increased focus on the active equity business, BlackRock’s top line is expected to improve.

We project total revenues to grow 10.2%, 12.4% and 17.5% in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. Our estimate for total AUM indicates witnessing a CAGR of 5.5% in the three years ended 2026.

Sustainable Capital Distributions: BlackRock hikes dividends annually. In January 2024, it announced a 2% hike in quarterly dividend. Also, the company has an efficient share buyback policy in place.

In January 2023, its board of directors authorized the repurchase of an additional 7 million shares under its existing share repurchase program. As of June 30, 2024, 4.6 million shares were left to be repurchased under the current program. In 2024, BLK targets to repurchase shares worth $1.5 billion.

Given its earnings strength and solid liquidity position, the company is expected to sustain efficient capital distributions in the future and keep enhancing shareholder value.

Key Headwinds for BlackRock

Elevated Expenses: BlackRock has been witnessing a persistent rise in operating expenses for the past several years. Over the last five years (2018-2023), total expenses increased seeing a CAGR of 5.8% due to a rise in general and administration (G&A) costs. The uptrend in expenses continued in the first six months of 2024.

Overall costs are expected to be elevated in the near term. Excluding the impacts of GIP, Preqin and related transaction costs, management expects core G&A expenses in 2024 to increase in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range. We project total expenses to increase 9%, 15.6% and 14.7% in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Thus, higher costs will likely continue to hurt BlackRock’s bottom-line growth to an extent in the near term.

Overseas Revenue Dependence: BlackRock is a geographically diversified company with a presence in almost all major markets of the world. Its dependence on overseas revenues has been gradually increasing over the past few years, with almost 40% of total AUM managed for clients domiciled outside the United States.

Despite generating just about one-third of its revenues from overseas markets, a number of risks stemming from regulatory and political environments, foreign exchange fluctuations and the performance of the regional economy could affect its top-line growth.

BlackRock’s Price Performance & Zacks Rank

Over the past six months, BLK shares have gained 11.9% compared with the industry’s 8.4% growth.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Currently, BlackRock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

 

Stocks Worth Considering

A couple of better-ranked stocks from the same space are Janus Henderson Group plc (JHG - Free Report) and KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR - Free Report) . Currently, JHG sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and KKR has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings estimates for JHG for the current year have been revised 5.2% upward over the past 60 days. The company’s share price has increased 18.2% over the past six months.

Estimates for KKR’s current-year earnings have been revised 1.5% upward over the past 60 days. The company’s shares have gained 33% over the past six months.


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