Monday, September 23rd, 2024
Another day, another record high close for the Dow and S&P 500. It was a mildly higher day on light data, but the Dow climbed +61 points, +0.15%, to 42,124. The S&P gained +16 points, +0.28%, to 5718. The Nasdaq grew slightly, +0.14%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gave back -0.31% on the session.
Fed Members Speak About Rate Cuts
We’re just starting to get words from Fed participants on their outlook for future rate-cut activity. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told the National Association of State Treasurers earlier today, saying he expects “many more rate cuts” in the coming year. “We would love to freeze both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate right here,” which would indicate a Fed funds rate much lower than where it currently designed to cool the economy.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic felt the 50 basis-point (bps) downward move last week was appropriate. "Progress on inflation and the cooling of the labor market have emerged much more quickly than I imagined at the beginning of the summer," he said.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the focus has shifted from curbing inflation to aiding a rapidly cooling employment situation, saying “The balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation and toward the risk of a further weakening of the labor market."
FedSpeak continues throughout the course of this week and going forward for the next month or so, before their next blackout period ahead of the next Fed meeting. These include the only voting Fed member to have been on the record advocating a 25 bps cut last week, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. The first of her addresses will take place tomorrow morning at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.
Manufacturing and Services PMI Mixed
This morning,
S&P flash PMI reports for Services and Manufacturing were released for September. Services, which have maintained levels above the 50-mark, indicating growth, came in as expected at 55.4, slightly down from the unrevised 55.7 reported a month ago.
Manufacturing, however, has been having a tougher time of it. Not only is today’s print of 47.0 below that same 50-level, but it came in beneath the 48.4 expected and unrevised 47.9 headline from August. Manufacturing has had a rough time of it in the past months; we’ll continue to look for a turnaround at some point in the future.
What’s on Deck for Tuesday in the Stock Market
Aside from the morning address from Fed Governor Bowman tomorrow, we’ll see a new
Case-Shiller home prices index for July. Expectations are expected to cool, though this is not the metric we need to see for looking forward in household formation. Case-Shiller is an accurate account of home prices, but typically occurs two months in arrears.
Consumer Confidence for September comes out before noon tomorrow, as well. Expectations are for a print of 104, slightly above the previous month but still within the range of the last two years, between 100 and 110 — splitting the difference between pre- and post-Covid confidence levels.
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Image: Bigstock
Fresh Highs for Dow, S&P in Monday Trading
Monday, September 23rd, 2024
Another day, another record high close for the Dow and S&P 500. It was a mildly higher day on light data, but the Dow climbed +61 points, +0.15%, to 42,124. The S&P gained +16 points, +0.28%, to 5718. The Nasdaq grew slightly, +0.14%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gave back -0.31% on the session.
Fed Members Speak About Rate Cuts
We’re just starting to get words from Fed participants on their outlook for future rate-cut activity. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told the National Association of State Treasurers earlier today, saying he expects “many more rate cuts” in the coming year. “We would love to freeze both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate right here,” which would indicate a Fed funds rate much lower than where it currently designed to cool the economy.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic felt the 50 basis-point (bps) downward move last week was appropriate. "Progress on inflation and the cooling of the labor market have emerged much more quickly than I imagined at the beginning of the summer," he said.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the focus has shifted from curbing inflation to aiding a rapidly cooling employment situation, saying “The balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation and toward the risk of a further weakening of the labor market."
FedSpeak continues throughout the course of this week and going forward for the next month or so, before their next blackout period ahead of the next Fed meeting. These include the only voting Fed member to have been on the record advocating a 25 bps cut last week, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. The first of her addresses will take place tomorrow morning at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention.
Manufacturing and Services PMI Mixed
This morning, S&P flash PMI reports for Services and Manufacturing were released for September. Services, which have maintained levels above the 50-mark, indicating growth, came in as expected at 55.4, slightly down from the unrevised 55.7 reported a month ago.
Manufacturing, however, has been having a tougher time of it. Not only is today’s print of 47.0 below that same 50-level, but it came in beneath the 48.4 expected and unrevised 47.9 headline from August. Manufacturing has had a rough time of it in the past months; we’ll continue to look for a turnaround at some point in the future.
What’s on Deck for Tuesday in the Stock Market
Aside from the morning address from Fed Governor Bowman tomorrow, we’ll see a new Case-Shiller home prices index for July. Expectations are expected to cool, though this is not the metric we need to see for looking forward in household formation. Case-Shiller is an accurate account of home prices, but typically occurs two months in arrears.
Consumer Confidence for September comes out before noon tomorrow, as well. Expectations are for a print of 104, slightly above the previous month but still within the range of the last two years, between 100 and 110 — splitting the difference between pre- and post-Covid confidence levels.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>