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Why Investors Need to Take Advantage of These 2 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Now

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Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Royal Caribbean?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Royal Caribbean (RCL - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) 27 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 24, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $5 a share.

By taking the percentage difference between the $5 Most Accurate Estimate and the $4.98 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Royal Caribbean has an Earnings ESP of +0.44%. Investors should also know that RCL is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

RCL is one of just a large database of Consumer Discretionary stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is PlayAGS (AGS - Free Report) .

PlayAGS is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on November 5, 2024. AGS' Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.17 a share 39 days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PlayAGS is $0.13, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +27.5%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, RCL and AGS could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) - free report >>

PlayAGS, Inc. (AGS) - free report >>

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