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The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF, VanEck Retail ETF and SPDR S&P Transportation ETF
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For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – October 3, 2024 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks and ETFs featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. ETFs recently featured in the blog include: Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF - Free Report) , Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK - Free Report) , VanEck Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report) and SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN - Free Report) .
Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:
4 Sector ETFs to Buy for Q4 2024
The third quarter of 2024 has been extremely volatile for the U.S. stock market. Recession concerns, geopolitical tensions, a fading craze for AI (artificial intelligence), and uncertainty over the upcoming elections have left investors uneasy.
However, optimism about potential Fed rate cuts has provided some support to the market. As a result, investors shifted away from technology stocks, favoring smaller companies and sectors that stand to benefit more from interest rate reductions. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 added 5.1%, 8.2%, 2.2% and 8.6%, respectively.
Will Q4 Work Wonders for Wall Street?
Over the past decade, the fourth quarter of the year has actually been the best for the stock market, with the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up at least 4% on average, per a CNBC article. The S&P 500 had traded positively 80% of the time, according to a CNBC analysis of Kensho, a market data analysis platform. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 5% in four quarters over the past 10 years, trading positive 80% of the time.
Moreover, inflation is easing and rates are falling. Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few sector ETFs that could be great picks for Q4.
As of Sept. 27, 2024, the 10-year U.S. treasury yield was 3.75% and the two-year U.S. treasury bond yields were 3.55%. On the other hand, at the start of the month, the 10-year U.S. treasury yield was 3.84% and the two-year U.S. treasury bond yields were 3.88% (read: Can Bank ETFs Gain Hugely Amid Rate-Cut Cycle?).
This indicates that the spread between the two yields has been increasing, resulting in a steepening of the yield curve, which is great for banking stocks’ operation as it boosts net interest margin. If the trend continues, the cheaper valuation of the financial sector will give it a leeway to outperform in Q4.
Technology has turned out to be one of the most profitable sectors in recent times, driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, easing inflation and a surge in “magnificent seven.” The ongoing Fed policy easing may drive the sector even higher. The upheaval in the sector’s performance in the third quarter happened due to still-higher rates and uncertainty regarding the timing of the return-on-investment on AI.
But then, investors should note that consumers often buy and gift tech gadgets during the holiday season. Plus, AI mania is still thriving. This should make XLK a winning proposition (read: AI Mania in Fine Fettle: ETFs to Invest).
The late October-December period embraces the key holiday season, which puts the spotlight on the performance of retailers. As loads of sales-boosting events — Halloween, Thanksgiving, Cyber Monday, Black Friday and Christmas — fall in this quartile, the sector generally sees a sales boost.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that retail sales in 2024 will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, reaching a total of $5.23 trillion to $5.28 trillion. The 2024 sales forecast compares with 3.6% annual sales growth of $5.1 trillion in 2023. The 2024 forecast includes online and non-store sales, which are expected to grow between 7% and 9% year over year.
Thanksgiving and Christmas are normally two of the most traveled holidays in the fourth quarter. A surge in travel is expected this holiday season, especially with Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve falling over the weekend. High demand for holiday travel and rising fuel prices may push prices up for tickets for airlines and the other modes of travel This makes transportation stocks, as a whole, a great buy for Q4.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF, VanEck Retail ETF and SPDR S&P Transportation ETF
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – October 3, 2024 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks and ETFs featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. ETFs recently featured in the blog include: Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF - Free Report) , Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK - Free Report) , VanEck Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report) and SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN - Free Report) .
Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:
4 Sector ETFs to Buy for Q4 2024
The third quarter of 2024 has been extremely volatile for the U.S. stock market. Recession concerns, geopolitical tensions, a fading craze for AI (artificial intelligence), and uncertainty over the upcoming elections have left investors uneasy.
However, optimism about potential Fed rate cuts has provided some support to the market. As a result, investors shifted away from technology stocks, favoring smaller companies and sectors that stand to benefit more from interest rate reductions. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 added 5.1%, 8.2%, 2.2% and 8.6%, respectively.
Will Q4 Work Wonders for Wall Street?
Over the past decade, the fourth quarter of the year has actually been the best for the stock market, with the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up at least 4% on average, per a CNBC article. The S&P 500 had traded positively 80% of the time, according to a CNBC analysis of Kensho, a market data analysis platform. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 5% in four quarters over the past 10 years, trading positive 80% of the time.
Moreover, inflation is easing and rates are falling. Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few sector ETFs that could be great picks for Q4.
Sector ETFs in Focus
Financials – Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)
As of Sept. 27, 2024, the 10-year U.S. treasury yield was 3.75% and the two-year U.S. treasury bond yields were 3.55%. On the other hand, at the start of the month, the 10-year U.S. treasury yield was 3.84% and the two-year U.S. treasury bond yields were 3.88% (read: Can Bank ETFs Gain Hugely Amid Rate-Cut Cycle?).
This indicates that the spread between the two yields has been increasing, resulting in a steepening of the yield curve, which is great for banking stocks’ operation as it boosts net interest margin. If the trend continues, the cheaper valuation of the financial sector will give it a leeway to outperform in Q4.
Technology – Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF – Zacks Rank #1
Technology has turned out to be one of the most profitable sectors in recent times, driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, easing inflation and a surge in “magnificent seven.” The ongoing Fed policy easing may drive the sector even higher. The upheaval in the sector’s performance in the third quarter happened due to still-higher rates and uncertainty regarding the timing of the return-on-investment on AI.
But then, investors should note that consumers often buy and gift tech gadgets during the holiday season. Plus, AI mania is still thriving. This should make XLK a winning proposition (read: AI Mania in Fine Fettle: ETFs to Invest).
Consumer Discretionary – VanEck Retail ETF – Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)
The late October-December period embraces the key holiday season, which puts the spotlight on the performance of retailers. As loads of sales-boosting events — Halloween, Thanksgiving, Cyber Monday, Black Friday and Christmas — fall in this quartile, the sector generally sees a sales boost.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that retail sales in 2024 will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, reaching a total of $5.23 trillion to $5.28 trillion. The 2024 sales forecast compares with 3.6% annual sales growth of $5.1 trillion in 2023. The 2024 forecast includes online and non-store sales, which are expected to grow between 7% and 9% year over year.
Transportation– SPDR S&P Transportation ETF – Zacks Rank #2
Thanksgiving and Christmas are normally two of the most traveled holidays in the fourth quarter. A surge in travel is expected this holiday season, especially with Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve falling over the weekend. High demand for holiday travel and rising fuel prices may push prices up for tickets for airlines and the other modes of travel This makes transportation stocks, as a whole, a great buy for Q4.
Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox?
Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.
Get it free >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.