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High Rates & Loan Demand Aid Commerce Bancshares Amid Rising Expenses
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Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH - Free Report) remains well-positioned for growth on the back of decent loan demand, high rates and a solid balance sheet. However, deteriorating asset quality and an elevated expense base are headwinds.
Commerce Bancshares’ Tailwinds
Solid Organic Growth Strategy: CBSH’s organic expansion efforts have been driving its growth strategy. Revenues witnessed a five-year (2018-2023) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%. This growth was primarily driven by strong loan balances (which experienced a 4% CAGR over the four-year period ended 2023) and fee income sources. The uptrend continued for both revenues and loans in the six months of 2024 alongside an improvement in fee income.
Revenue Growth Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Decent loan demand alongside solid non-interest income performance is likely to drive top-line expansion. We estimate total revenues and net loans and leases to reflect a CAGR of 2.3% and 2.9% by 2026, respectively.
High Rates & Balance Sheet Repositioning Strategy to Aid Net Interest Income: Amid the current high-interest rate environment, Commerce Bancshares’ net yield on interest-earning assets is likely to grow in the upcoming quarters. However, rising funding costs will weigh on it. In May 2024, the company announced a balance sheet repositioning strategy to boost its net interest income.
The company aims to sell off its debt securities and reinvest the proceeds at higher yields as part of this strategic move. In 2023, the net yield on interest-earning assets expanded to 3.16% from 2.85% in 2022. The uptrend continued in the first half of 2024. We anticipate the metric to be 3.40%, 3.42% and 3.50% in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively, per our projections.
Solid Balance Sheet: As of June 30, 2024, CBSH’s total debt (comprising other liabilities and other borrowings) was $580.4 million. Cash and due from banks and interest-earning deposits with banks was $2.5 billion.
The company enjoys investment grade ratings of A- and a stable outlook from Standard & Poor’s. This enhances the company’s accessibility to the debt market. Thus, the company’s earnings strength enables it to address its near-term debt obligations, even in the event of economic turmoil.
Roadblocks for CBSH
Rising Expense Base: Commerce Bancshares’ persistent increase in non-interest expenses is a concern. The metric witnessed a 4.8% CAGR over the last five years ended 2023, primarily due to higher salaries and employee benefit costs. The metric increased during the first six months of 2024 as well.
Expense Growth
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Overall expenses are likely to remain elevated in light of ongoing technological upgrades and inflationary pressures. We expect non-interest expenses to rise 4.5% and 5.1% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Worsening Asset Quality: CBSH’s deteriorating asset quality is another headwind. While the company recorded a provision benefit in 2021, a significant rise in provision for credit losses was witnessed in 2022 and 2023. Though provisions dipped in the first half of 2024, overall provisions are likely to remain high in the near term as the company continues to build reserves to tackle the tough operating backdrop. We expect the metric to remain elevated in future quarters.
Commerce Bancshares currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Over the past six months, shares of the company have rallied 8.5%, underperforming the industry’s growth of 10.8%.
Estimates for FMNB’s current-year earnings have remained unchanged in the past two months. The company’s shares have rallied 12.3% in the past six months.
Estimates for HTLF’s current-year earnings have been revised marginally upward in the past 30 days. The company’s shares have surged 60.9% in the past six months.
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High Rates & Loan Demand Aid Commerce Bancshares Amid Rising Expenses
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH - Free Report) remains well-positioned for growth on the back of decent loan demand, high rates and a solid balance sheet. However, deteriorating asset quality and an elevated expense base are headwinds.
Commerce Bancshares’ Tailwinds
Solid Organic Growth Strategy: CBSH’s organic expansion efforts have been driving its growth strategy. Revenues witnessed a five-year (2018-2023) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%. This growth was primarily driven by strong loan balances (which experienced a 4% CAGR over the four-year period ended 2023) and fee income sources. The uptrend continued for both revenues and loans in the six months of 2024 alongside an improvement in fee income.
Revenue Growth Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Decent loan demand alongside solid non-interest income performance is likely to drive top-line expansion. We estimate total revenues and net loans and leases to reflect a CAGR of 2.3% and 2.9% by 2026, respectively.
High Rates & Balance Sheet Repositioning Strategy to Aid Net Interest Income: Amid the current high-interest rate environment, Commerce Bancshares’ net yield on interest-earning assets is likely to grow in the upcoming quarters. However, rising funding costs will weigh on it. In May 2024, the company announced a balance sheet repositioning strategy to boost its net interest income.
The company aims to sell off its debt securities and reinvest the proceeds at higher yields as part of this strategic move. In 2023, the net yield on interest-earning assets expanded to 3.16% from 2.85% in 2022. The uptrend continued in the first half of 2024. We anticipate the metric to be 3.40%, 3.42% and 3.50% in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively, per our projections.
Available-for-Sale Securities Repositioning Yields
Image Source: Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
Solid Balance Sheet: As of June 30, 2024, CBSH’s total debt (comprising other liabilities and other borrowings) was $580.4 million. Cash and due from banks and interest-earning deposits with banks was $2.5 billion.
The company enjoys investment grade ratings of A- and a stable outlook from Standard & Poor’s. This enhances the company’s accessibility to the debt market. Thus, the company’s earnings strength enables it to address its near-term debt obligations, even in the event of economic turmoil.
Roadblocks for CBSH
Rising Expense Base: Commerce Bancshares’ persistent increase in non-interest expenses is a concern. The metric witnessed a 4.8% CAGR over the last five years ended 2023, primarily due to higher salaries and employee benefit costs. The metric increased during the first six months of 2024 as well.
Expense Growth
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Overall expenses are likely to remain elevated in light of ongoing technological upgrades and inflationary pressures. We expect non-interest expenses to rise 4.5% and 5.1% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Worsening Asset Quality: CBSH’s deteriorating asset quality is another headwind. While the company recorded a provision benefit in 2021, a significant rise in provision for credit losses was witnessed in 2022 and 2023. Though provisions dipped in the first half of 2024, overall provisions are likely to remain high in the near term as the company continues to build reserves to tackle the tough operating backdrop. We expect the metric to remain elevated in future quarters.
Commerce Bancshares currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Over the past six months, shares of the company have rallied 8.5%, underperforming the industry’s growth of 10.8%.
Six-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Banking Stocks Worth Considering
Some better-ranked bank stocks worth a look are Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB - Free Report) and Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF - Free Report) , each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Estimates for FMNB’s current-year earnings have remained unchanged in the past two months. The company’s shares have rallied 12.3% in the past six months.
Estimates for HTLF’s current-year earnings have been revised marginally upward in the past 30 days. The company’s shares have surged 60.9% in the past six months.