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Evolv Technologies Stock Tanks 17.4% YTD: Time to Buy the Dip?

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In a challenging year for many tech stocks, Evolv Technologies (EVLV - Free Report) has seen its share price plummet 18% year to date, significantly underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 22.6%. This sharp decline has left investors wondering whether the current dip presents a buying opportunity or signals deeper issues for this AI-powered security screening company.

Evolv Technologies, founded in 2013, has been at the forefront of modernizing security screening through its innovative use of artificial intelligence and advanced sensors. While near-term challenges exist, including slower-than-expected adoption in some sectors, Evolv's long-term growth prospects, coupled with its disruptive technology, make it an intriguing option for investors seeking exposure to next-generation security solutions.

Year-to-date Performance

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EVLV’s Potential in the $13.2B Security Screening Market

Despite the recent downturn, several compelling reasons suggest that Evolv's current valuation may represent an attractive entry point for long-term investors. First, Evolv's core business remains positioned in a rapidly growing market. Per MarketandMarkets report, the global security screening market size is valued at $9.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $13.2 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 7.1%, driven by increasing security concerns across various industries. Evolv's AI-powered screening technology, which offers a frictionless and more efficient alternative to traditional methods, is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth trend.

Security Screening Market Creates Bright Prospects

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The company's flagship product, Evolv Express, continues to gain traction in key sectors such as education and entertainment venues. While adoption in government and transportation markets has been slower than initially anticipated, recent developments suggest potential breakthroughs. Evolv's newly announced partnership with a major government contractor could serve as a catalyst for penetrating the lucrative public sector market, potentially driving significant revenue growth in the coming years.

Evolv's commitment to innovation remains strong, with ongoing investments in research and development. The company has been enhancing its AI algorithms and expanding its product lineup to address a wider range of applications. A notable addition is a new solution specifically designed for transportation hubs, which could open up substantial market opportunities in the aviation and mass transit sectors.

From a financial perspective, total revenues in the second quarter of 2024 were $25.5 million, an increase of 29% year over year. The company reported an adjusted loss of 6 cents per share, narrower than a loss of 10 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. As of June 30, 2024, the company had cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and restricted cash of $56.7 million and no debt. This financial stability provides the company with ample runway to fund its growth initiatives and weather near-term challenges without the immediate need for dilutive financing.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 revenues is pegged at $101.03 million, suggesting 25.62% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for earnings has remained steady at a loss of 26 cents per share over the past 30 days.

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Moreover, the broader market dynamics for AI and security technologies remain favorable. As organizations increasingly prioritize advanced security solutions, Evolv's AI-driven approach could see accelerated adoption, particularly as the technology continues to prove its effectiveness and cost-efficiency compared to traditional screening methods.

AEYE Faces Low Adoption Rate and Stiff Rivalry

One of the primary factors behind Evolv's underwhelming performance has been the slower adoption rate of its technology in key market segments. While the company has made significant inroads in sectors such as education and entertainment venues, it has struggled to penetrate the lucrative government and transportation markets as quickly as anticipated. Regulatory hurdles and lengthy procurement processes have posed challenges to Evolv's expansion in these areas.

Moreover, increased competition in the security technology space has put pressure on Evolv's market position. Established players in the traditional security screening market have been investing heavily in AI and machine learning capabilities, narrowing the technological gap that once set Evolv apart. Key rivals include Rapiscan Systems, L3Harris Technologies, and Smiths Detection, which offer traditional screening solutions. Newer entrants like Patriot One Technologies and Liberty Defense are also developing AI-powered security systems, intensifying competition in the advanced screening market. This intensifying competition has led to concerns about potential margin compression and market share erosion in the coming quarters.

Conclusion

Evolv's management has been proactively addressing challenges, including efforts to streamline operations and focus on high-potential market segments. These strategic initiatives could lead to improved financial performance in the coming quarters, potentially serving as catalysts for stock price appreciation. For investors bullish on the future of AI-powered security solutions and willing to tolerate some near-term volatility, Evolv Technologies' stock at its current levels may offer an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to a promising player in the evolving security technology landscape. Evolv Technologies currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.


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