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Tesla Q3 Deliveries Rise Y/Y & Q/Q but Lag Estimates, Shares Fall

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Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) shares declined 3.5% yesterday after releasing its vehicle production and delivery numbers for the third quarter. The electric vehicle (EV) giant delivered 462,890 cars (439,975 Model 3/Y and 22,915 other models) worldwide in the third quarter, marginally missing Wall Street’s expectations of 463,000 vehicles. Despite falling short of expectations, deliveries rose on a year-over-year basis for the first time this year. Third-quarter deliveries also rose 4.3% sequentially. Our model estimated deliveries to be 471,559 units. The company produced 469,796 vehicles (443,668 Model 3/Y and 26,128 Model S/X) in the three months ended September.

In the third quarter of 2024, TSLA stock was up 24.6%. The stock likely got a boost from China’s decision to double incentives for buyers trading in older cars for electric models, spurring demand in the country’s vast EV market. This momentum aligned with growing anticipation for Tesla’s upcoming Oct. 10 event, where CEO Elon Musk is expected to showcase self-driving vehicle prototypes.

Earlier in 2024, Tesla cautioned that it may experience slower growth until more affordable models begin production in the first half of 2025. With deliveries down more than 2% in the first three quarters, the company will need a strong close to the year to achieve any growth in 2024.

While vehicle sales have improved both annually and sequentially, Tesla’s energy business faced a decline. The company deployed 6.9 gigawatt hours of energy storage products in the third quarter, marking a drop of more than 25% sequentially. Still, Tesla has already exceeded its total energy storage deployments so far this year than in all of 2023.

Tesla will report its third-quarter results on Oct. 23, after market close, but all eyes are first on the Oct. 10 Robotaxi Day, which could offer a glimpse into the company’s next wave of innovations. TSLA has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

How TSLA’s Q3 EV Sales Compare With BYDDY, GM & F

In the third quarter of 2024, Tesla's global EV deliveries once again surpassed China’s BYD Co's (BYDDY - Free Report) battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales, continuing a three-quarter streak. Notably, BYDDY had outsold Tesla in BEV sales once in the fourth quarter of 2023, but Tesla has maintained its lead since then. Unlike Tesla, which exclusively manufactures BEVs, BYD produces both BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), allowing it to capture a broader market.

In the third quarter of 2024, BYD sold 1,134,892 new energy vehicles — a mix of BEVs and PHEVs — marking the first time the company exceeded 1 million units in a single quarter. BYD's passenger BEV sales reached 443,426 units, reflecting a 2.74% year-over-year increase and a 4.08% rise on a sequential basis.

Legacy automakers Ford (F - Free Report) and General Motors (GM - Free Report) also saw a year-over-year uptick in their third-quarter EV sales. Ford sold 23,509 EVs, which reflected 12% growth from the previous year. GM reported a substantial 60% jump in EV sales year over year, selling approximately 32,100 units in the three months ended September. Despite this growth, the company’s EV sales remain a small fraction compared to Tesla, accounting for just 4.9% of GM’s total sales in the period.


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