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ICE Trading at Premium to Industry at 24.93X: What Should You Do?
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Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s (ICE - Free Report) shares are trading at a premium to the Zacks Securities and Exchange industry. Its forward price-to-earnings of 24.93X is higher than the industry average of 23.96X. It is also trading at a premium to the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s 16.20X and 21.57X, respectively.
The company has a market capitalization of $93.7 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 2.8 million.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock remains attractively valued compared with MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX - Free Report) but unfavorable when compared with Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ - Free Report) and CME Group (CME - Free Report) .
CME shares have gained 15.9% in the past three months, outperforming its industry, the sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return in the same time frame. A compelling portfolio, expansive risk-management services, strategic buyouts, solid balance sheet and effective capital deployment drive ICE shares.
ICE Vs Industry, Sector and S&P 500 in 3 Months
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ICE Trading Above 50-Day Moving Average
ICE shares are trading well above the 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. Shares are trading near the high end of its 52-week range.
Positive Analyst Sentiment Instills Confidence in ICE
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved up 1 cent north each in the last seven days, reflecting analysts’ optimism.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 implies a 7.7% year-over-year increase, while the same for 2025 suggests an 11% increase.
What’s Favoring ICE?
ICE is poised to grow on the strength of its expansive and compelling product and a broad range of risk management services. Revenues will benefit from strength in global data services and index business, growth in pricing and reference data business, and strength in ICE Global Network offering, solid desktop, feeds and derivatives analytics revenues. An impressive inorganic growth track, apart from a strengthening portfolio and expanding presence, helps it achieve expense synergies.
Intercontinental is the second-largest global fixed-income provider, with more than 5,000 indices representing more than $1 trillion in benchmark assets under management. ICE estimates to grow total Fixed Income & Data Services recurring revenues around the mid-single-digit, an improvement from 3% growth in 2023.
ICE boasts the largest mortgage network across the United States and thus remains well poised to benefit from accelerated digitization in the residential mortgage industry.
The long-term earnings growth rate is currently pegged at 9.4%, better than the industry average of 8.5%.
A healthy and minimal risk-based balance sheet is likely to continue providing stability and buoyancy over the medium to long term while supporting strategic investments.
ICE’s Return on Capital
Return on invested capital (ROIC) has increased every year. This reflects ICE’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 6.1%, higher than the industry average of 4.9%.
Risks to ICE
Despite the upside potential, there are a few factors that investors should keep an eye on.
Operating expenses have been increasing over the last several years, weighing on margin expansion. We believe that expenses are likely to remain elevated in the near term, given several strategic initiatives, including product launches and technology upgrades, as well as higher debt and integration expenses. ICE estimates GAAP operating expenses between $4.90 billion and $4.93 billion in 2024, up from $4.87 billion and $4.90 billion guided earlier. Adjusted operating expenses are projected to be between $3.79 billion and $3.82 billion.
Though the debt balance declined, the leverage as well as times interest earned compares unfavorably with the industry average.
ICE’s trailing 12-month ROE of 12.7% is weak when compared with the industry average of 13.2%, reflecting its inefficiency in using shareholders' funds.
Average Target Price for ICE Suggests an Upside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 17 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $172.35 per share. The average suggests a potential 7.1% upside from Thursday’s closing price of $163.26.
Parting Thoughts
Intercontinental is set to grow on a solid portfolio, a wide range of risk management services, cost synergies and a solid capital position. ICE’s dividend history is impressive. It has more than doubled its dividends in the last six years. Positive analyst sentiment, higher target price and growth prospect raises confidence.
Image: Bigstock
ICE Trading at Premium to Industry at 24.93X: What Should You Do?
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s (ICE - Free Report) shares are trading at a premium to the Zacks Securities and Exchange industry. Its forward price-to-earnings of 24.93X is higher than the industry average of 23.96X. It is also trading at a premium to the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s 16.20X and 21.57X, respectively.
The company has a market capitalization of $93.7 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 2.8 million.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock remains attractively valued compared with MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX - Free Report) but unfavorable when compared with Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ - Free Report) and CME Group (CME - Free Report) .
CME shares have gained 15.9% in the past three months, outperforming its industry, the sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return in the same time frame. A compelling portfolio, expansive risk-management services, strategic buyouts, solid balance sheet and effective capital deployment drive ICE shares.
ICE Vs Industry, Sector and S&P 500 in 3 Months
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ICE Trading Above 50-Day Moving Average
ICE shares are trading well above the 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. Shares are trading near the high end of its 52-week range.
Positive Analyst Sentiment Instills Confidence in ICE
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved up 1 cent north each in the last seven days, reflecting analysts’ optimism.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 implies a 7.7% year-over-year increase, while the same for 2025 suggests an 11% increase.
What’s Favoring ICE?
ICE is poised to grow on the strength of its expansive and compelling product and a broad range of risk management services. Revenues will benefit from strength in global data services and index business, growth in pricing and reference data business, and strength in ICE Global Network offering, solid desktop, feeds and derivatives analytics revenues. An impressive inorganic growth track, apart from a strengthening portfolio and expanding presence, helps it achieve expense synergies.
Intercontinental is the second-largest global fixed-income provider, with more than 5,000 indices representing more than $1 trillion in benchmark assets under management. ICE estimates to grow total Fixed Income & Data Services recurring revenues around the mid-single-digit, an improvement from 3% growth in 2023.
ICE boasts the largest mortgage network across the United States and thus remains well poised to benefit from accelerated digitization in the residential mortgage industry.
The long-term earnings growth rate is currently pegged at 9.4%, better than the industry average of 8.5%.
A healthy and minimal risk-based balance sheet is likely to continue providing stability and buoyancy over the medium to long term while supporting strategic investments.
ICE’s Return on Capital
Return on invested capital (ROIC) has increased every year. This reflects ICE’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 6.1%, higher than the industry average of 4.9%.
Risks to ICE
Despite the upside potential, there are a few factors that investors should keep an eye on.
Operating expenses have been increasing over the last several years, weighing on margin expansion. We believe that expenses are likely to remain elevated in the near term, given several strategic initiatives, including product launches and technology upgrades, as well as higher debt and integration expenses. ICE estimates GAAP operating expenses between $4.90 billion and $4.93 billion in 2024, up from $4.87 billion and $4.90 billion guided earlier. Adjusted operating expenses are projected to be between $3.79 billion and $3.82 billion.
Though the debt balance declined, the leverage as well as times interest earned compares unfavorably with the industry average.
ICE’s trailing 12-month ROE of 12.7% is weak when compared with the industry average of 13.2%, reflecting its inefficiency in using shareholders' funds.
Average Target Price for ICE Suggests an Upside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 17 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $172.35 per share. The average suggests a potential 7.1% upside from Thursday’s closing price of $163.26.
Parting Thoughts
Intercontinental is set to grow on a solid portfolio, a wide range of risk management services, cost synergies and a solid capital position. ICE’s dividend history is impressive. It has more than doubled its dividends in the last six years. Positive analyst sentiment, higher target price and growth prospect raises confidence.
Given its premium valuation, unfavorable ROE and margin pressure, it is better to adopt a wait-and-see approach for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.