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Here's How Much You'd Have If You Invested $1000 in Chipotle Mexican Grill a Decade Ago

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How much a stock's price changes over time is a significant driver for most investors. Not only can price performance impact your portfolio, but it can help you compare investment results across sectors and industries as well.

Another factor that can influence investors is FOMO, or the fear of missing out, especially with tech giants and popular consumer-facing stocks.

What if you'd invested in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to CMG for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Business In-Depth

With that in mind, let's take a look at Chipotle Mexican Grill's main business drivers.

A Delaware corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, together with its subsidiaries, operates quick-casual and fresh Mexican food restaurant chains. The company was founded in 1993 by Steve Ells, who started with a single restaurant in Denver, CO. The company offers a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. Chipotle restaurants feature free-range, hormone-free pork, natural chicken and other meat products cooked using traditional methods and served in a unique atmosphere.

The company is committed to using high-quality real ingredients, classic cooking techniques and distinctive interior design to serve customers. As of Mar 31, 2024, the company owned and operated about 3,500 restaurants across the United States, Canada, the U.K., France, Germany and Kuwait.

The company’s growth is significantly driven by its digital platform. It has enhanced its capabilities by digitizing restaurant kitchens, expanding partnerships with third-party delivery services, and increasing the number of Chipotlanes (drive-through format for customer pick-up of digital orders). Digital sales, encompassing revenue generated through the Chipotle website, Chipotle app, or third-party delivery aggregators, which also includes revenue deferrals linked to Chipotle Rewards, constituted 37.4% of food and beverage revenue in 2023, compared to 39.4% in 2022 and 45.0% in 2021. The company has facilitated convenient digital ordering through enhancements to the Chipotle app and website, including unlimited customization, contactless delivery, and group ordering.

The company utilizes multiple marketing channels, including national television, digital marketing, social media, fundraising, events and sponsorships to reach consumers. Third-party service providers mostly provide delivery services.

In 2018, Chipotle launched a loyalty program called Chipotle Rewards, which provides customers with the opportunity to earn bonus points or free food. Earned rewards generally expire one to six months after they are issued and points typically expire if an account is inactive for six months.

Bottom Line

Anyone can invest, but building a successful investment portfolio requires research, patience, and a little bit of risk. So, if you had invested in Chipotle Mexican Grill ten years ago, you're likely feeling pretty good about your investment today.

According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in October 2014 would be worth $4,313.35, or a gain of 331.33%, as of October 9, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases.

The S&P 500 rose 192.10% and the price of gold increased 106.32% over the same time frame in comparison.

Going forward, analysts are expecting more upside for CMG.

Shares of Chipotle have underperformed the industry in the past six months. The company’s prospects are marred by higher ingredients costs, along with labor and other costs, which have increased its cost and expense structure. For 2024, it expects the cost of sales to be in the low to mid-single-digit range. Alongside high costs and expenses, Chipotle’s other concerns include soft discretionary spending trends due to the ongoing market uncertainties and risks related to third-party delivery platforms. Although its digital efforts, marketing initiatives, new restaurant openings and favorable menu pricing bode well, the aforementioned headwinds are overshadowing the positive factors to much extent. Earnings estimates for 2024 have declined in the past 60 days, depicting analysts’ concerns about the stock’s growth potential.

Shares have gained 6.95% over the past four weeks and there have been 1 higher earnings estimate revisions for fiscal 2024 compared to none lower. The consensus estimate has moved up as well.

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