Wednesday, October 9th, 2024
Pre-market futures are gently into the red this morning, following an up Tuesday which helped balanced Monday’s down session. Clearly market participants are looking for equilibrium, which may not be forthcoming until we see a few key data points hit the tape.
These include Wholesale Inventories for August after the opening bell this morning and minutes from the latest Fed meeting, not to mention several appearances from various Fed members, but the more important economic reportage comes Thursday and Friday mornings, when we see Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers coming in.
Currently, the Dow and Nasdaq are both down a slight -25 points, while the S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 are both -2. Bond yields are tightening up somewhat, on either side of +4%: the 10-year is currently +4.041% and the 2-year +3.971%.
Biggest Market Impact: Hurricane Milton
The second major hurricane in as many weeks is headed for the state of Florida: Milton, as of yesterday a Category 5 storm moving from the tip of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula toward Tampa Bay. Although it is expected to weaken to a Category 3 hurricane (with slower wind speeds), Hurricane Milton is considered to be “extremely life threatening” by the time it makes landfall later this evening.
Of course, Milton follows Hurricane Helene, which was the most powerful hurricane to ever hit Florida’s “Big Bend” — between the state’s panhandle and peninsula. Helene was a gigantic Category 4 storm when it struck, and though it moved through Florida rapidly, caused more than 200 fatalities overall and completely washed out communities in places like Asheville, North Carolina.
The single-most powerful hurricane to hit Florida was two years ago, almost to the week: Hurricane Ian, whose 160 mph winds and Atlantic Ocean storm surge caused the third-most damage of any storm in U.S. history, behind Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey. If it seems that hurricanes have become bigger, faster and more prevalent in recent years, this would track with warnings that climatologists have been sounding for decades.
Florida itself is the fourth-richest state in the U.S., with Gross State Product (GSP) of $1.6 trillion as of this year. On its own, Florida has an economy bigger than Spain’s but just smaller than South Korea’s. Its GSP per capita is $73K. Thus, hurricane season is virtually guaranteed to hit economic reports in the next couple months and possibly beyond. It is the biggest possible hindrance to growth in the nation at present.
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Hurricane Milton and the Economic Outlook
Wednesday, October 9th, 2024
Pre-market futures are gently into the red this morning, following an up Tuesday which helped balanced Monday’s down session. Clearly market participants are looking for equilibrium, which may not be forthcoming until we see a few key data points hit the tape.
These include Wholesale Inventories for August after the opening bell this morning and minutes from the latest Fed meeting, not to mention several appearances from various Fed members, but the more important economic reportage comes Thursday and Friday mornings, when we see Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers coming in.
Currently, the Dow and Nasdaq are both down a slight -25 points, while the S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 are both -2. Bond yields are tightening up somewhat, on either side of +4%: the 10-year is currently +4.041% and the 2-year +3.971%.
Biggest Market Impact: Hurricane Milton
The second major hurricane in as many weeks is headed for the state of Florida: Milton, as of yesterday a Category 5 storm moving from the tip of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula toward Tampa Bay. Although it is expected to weaken to a Category 3 hurricane (with slower wind speeds), Hurricane Milton is considered to be “extremely life threatening” by the time it makes landfall later this evening.
Of course, Milton follows Hurricane Helene, which was the most powerful hurricane to ever hit Florida’s “Big Bend” — between the state’s panhandle and peninsula. Helene was a gigantic Category 4 storm when it struck, and though it moved through Florida rapidly, caused more than 200 fatalities overall and completely washed out communities in places like Asheville, North Carolina.
The single-most powerful hurricane to hit Florida was two years ago, almost to the week: Hurricane Ian, whose 160 mph winds and Atlantic Ocean storm surge caused the third-most damage of any storm in U.S. history, behind Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey. If it seems that hurricanes have become bigger, faster and more prevalent in recent years, this would track with warnings that climatologists have been sounding for decades.
Florida itself is the fourth-richest state in the U.S., with Gross State Product (GSP) of $1.6 trillion as of this year. On its own, Florida has an economy bigger than Spain’s but just smaller than South Korea’s. Its GSP per capita is $73K. Thus, hurricane season is virtually guaranteed to hit economic reports in the next couple months and possibly beyond. It is the biggest possible hindrance to growth in the nation at present.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>