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Is Affirm's Low P/S Ratio a Hidden Gem for Investors or a Value Trap?

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From a valuation perspective, Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM - Free Report) stock looks attractive. AFRM is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/sales (P/S) of 4.02X, a roughly 37% discount compared with the industry average of 6.41X. It has a market cap of $13.3 billion.

Though Affirm’s cheap valuation may present a profitable opportunity for investors seeking value, a more comprehensive analysis is needed to determine if its discounted valuation is justified based on its fundamentals, growth prospects and prevailing market conditions.

Closing at $41.15 in the last trading session, the stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum.

 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

AFRM Stock’s Price Performance

Affirm’s shares have gained 22.5% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 1.4% growth. It has also outperformed the broader Zacks Business Services sector’s 4.4% rise and the S&P 500 Index’s 10.4% increase in the said time frame.

6-Month Price Performance

 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Business Tailwinds for AFRM

Affirm’s proprietary technology and data-driven risk model give it a competitive edge in pricing and underwriting credit at the transaction level. This innovation enables it to offer differentiated products like interest-bearing installment loans, which appeal to a broad range of consumers and contribute to its significant gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth. In fiscal 2024, Affirm facilitated $26.6 billion in GMV, which reflects the platform's ability to attract a diverse and expanding consumer base. Management anticipates a GMV of more than $33.5 billion in fiscal 2025, which denotes an increase from the fiscal 2024 figure.

AFRM's business model promotes strong network effects, which are amplified with each new merchant addition to its platform. As more consumers use its platform, merchants are increasingly motivated to integrate AFRM's payment solutions to capture a share of that consumer base. This mutual benefit strengthens relationships with merchants, many of whom report higher customer acquisition and average order value due to the company’s offerings. Repeat consumer activity lowers costs and improves credit decisioning accuracy, which further enhances its operational efficiency. As of June 30, 2024, Affirm boasted around 303,000 active merchants and a substantial base of repeat consumers.

Affirm's strategic partnerships, including those with major players like Amazon and Apple Pay, provide a significant growth avenue. These partnerships allow it to tap into large consumer bases and diversify its revenue streams across various sectors, ranging from e-commerce to in-store purchases. This expanded reach supports Affirm's plans for international growth, particularly its expected entry into the U.K. market in 2025, further boosting long-term prospects.

The rapidly growing buy now, pay later (BNPL) market provides Affirm with an excellent opportunity to capitalize on its wide range of product offerings. Installment payment options have gained popularity as such payment options remove the need to make lumpsum payments and do not exert pressure on one’s finances. AFRM recently revealed that its payment services have been made accessible to Apple Pay users in the United States on iPhone and iPad, thereby ushering in good news for investors waiting since June 2024 when the partnership between Affirm and Apple Pay was announced.

AFRM's solid cash flow generating abilities enable it to continue investing in its business. In fiscal 2024, the company generated $450.1 million in operating cash flow, which increased nearly 37-fold from the fiscal 2023 figure. It also had a cash balance of $1 billion as of June 30, 2024.

Estimate Revisions Favor Affirm

Earnings estimates for AFRM have moved up over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings has been revised upward over the same time frame.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a 50.9% year-over-year improvement while the estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings implies an increase of 147.6%. AFRM’s fiscal 2025 earnings have witnessed five upward estimate revisions during the past 60 days. Moreover, the consensus mark for fiscal 2025 and 2026 revenues indicates 29.6% and 21.1% year-over-year growth, respectively.

 

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Headwinds for AFRM’s Business

As a provider of digital payment solutions, AFRM's investment in technology is crucial to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving digital era, resulting in substantial expenses related to technology and data analytics.

Affirm's technology platform faces direct competition from established digital payment solutions, including credit and debit cards issued by major financial institutions, payment services from Visa (V - Free Report) and Mastercard (MA - Free Report) , as well as mobile wallets like PayPal (PYPL - Free Report) , and other BNPL solutions offered by companies like Block and Klarna. Operating in such a competitive environment is likely to exert pressure on Affirm's margins and elevate marketing and customer acquisition costs.

Conclusion

Affirm's focus on proprietary technology and data-driven risk models sets it apart in the highly competitive BNPL market. With strong GMV growth, expanding strategic partnerships and international expansion plans, particularly in the U.K., the company is well-positioned for long-term growth. Its solid cash flows further enable ongoing investments in product development and partnerships. Nevertheless, competition from other fintech companies and an escalating expense level will likely continue to exist.

AFRM’s undervaluation, despite the significant rise in share price, and its improving profit estimates present a lucrative opportunity for investors to add the stock to their portfolio.

AFRM currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.


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