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These 2 Finance Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Reinsurance Group?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Reinsurance Group (RGA - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $5.17 a share, just 21 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 31, 2024.

Reinsurance Group's Earnings ESP sits at +0.92%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $5.17 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.12. RGA is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

RGA is part of a big group of Finance stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Palomar (PLMR - Free Report) as well.

Palomar is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on November 6, 2024. PLMR's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.09 a share 27 days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Palomar is $1.09, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.16%.

RGA and PLMR's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (RGA) - free report >>

Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) - free report >>

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