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What's in the Offing for Union Pacific in Third-Quarter Earnings?

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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 24 before market open.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Union Pacific has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. The average beat is 4.4%.

Union Pacific Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Union Pacific Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Union Pacific Corporation price-eps-surprise | Union Pacific Corporation Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s soon-to-be-reported quarter’s earnings has been revised downward by 0.4% in the past 60 days to $2.76 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $6.19 billion, which indicates growth of 4.2% from the year-ago levels.

We expect United Pacific's performance in the to-be-reported period to have been adversely affected by the woes of the freight market downturn and a softening consumer market.

Our estimate for freight revenues is pegged at $5.7 billion, which is roughly flat compared with the second-quarter 2024 actuals. Meanwhile, estimates for other revenues are pegged at $407 million.

On the contrary, UNP’s financial prospects are expected to benefit from improved operational efficiency, core pricing gain and the sale of intermodal equipment in the September-end quarter. Our September-quarter estimate for adjusted operating expenses indicates a 2% decline from the third-quarter 2023 actuals.

Due to lower costs, the operating ratio (operating expenses as % of revenues) is expected to have improved in the September quarter. A lower value of the metric is preferable. Our estimate for the third-quarter 2024 operating ratio is currently pegged at 60.3% compared with 63.4% reported in the third quarter of 2023.

What Our Model Predicts for UNP

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

UNP has an Earnings ESP of -0.20% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Highlights of Q2

Union Pacific's second-quarter 2024 earnings of $2.74 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.70 per share. The bottom line improved 6.61% on a year-over-year basis. Results were aided by strong operational efficiency and favorable pricing.

Operating revenues of $6 billion marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.06 billion. The top line improved by 0.74% on a year-over-year basis due to core pricing gains and business mix, offset by reduced fuel surcharge revenues.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors might want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat third-quarter 2024 earnings.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +18.66% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 29 before market open.

JBLU surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once. The average beat is 42%.

American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +32.97% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. AAL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 24.

AAL has an encouraging earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once, the average beat is 103.2%.


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