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Why Is Thor Industries (THO) Down 2.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Thor Industries (THO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Thor Industries due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Thor Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates

Thor reported earnings of $1.68 per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 (ended July 31, 2024), which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35. The bottom line remained flat from the year-ago quarter’s earnings. The company registered revenues of $2.53 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.46 billion. The top line, however, declined 7.4% year over year.

Segmental Results

North American Towable RVs: Revenues from the segment came in at $931.9 million, up 0.1% year over year due to an increase in unit shipments. The figure also beat our estimate of $867 million.

Gross profit totaled $117.4 million, up 6% year over year. The pretax income totaled $50.9 million, down from $55.7 million recorded in the year-ago period, primarily due to an increase in selling, general and administrative costs. The unit’s total backlog was $552.4 million at the quarter's end, down from $756 million as of July 31, 2023.

North American Motorized RVs: Revenues from the segment totaled $517.3 million, which fell 21.2% year over year, owing to a decrease in unit shipments. The figure, however, surpassed our estimate of $506.4 million.

Gross profit totaled $65.9 million, up 16.8% year over year. Consequently, pretax profit came in at $29.8 million, up 41.7% from the year-ago period. The segment’s backlog was $776.9 million, down from $1.24 billion as of July 31, 2023.

European RVs: Revenues from the segment came in at $934.4 million, down 7.4% from the year-ago period due to a decline in unit shipments. The figure also missed our estimate of $986.5 million.

Gross profit of $176.1 million fell 8.9% year over year. The segment reported a pretax income of $87.2 million, lower than the year-ago pretax income of $101.7 million. The backlog of the segment was $1.95 billion, which declined from $3.55 billion recorded as of July 31, 2023.

Financials

As of July 31, 2024, Thor had cash and cash equivalents of $501.3 million and long-term debt of $1.1 billion. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, THO repurchased 266,367 shares of its common stock.

Guidance for Fiscal 2025

Thor projects its fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales in the range of $9-$9.8 billion, down from $10 billion reported in fiscal 2024. The consolidated gross profit margin is expected in the band of 14.7-15.2%, up from 14.5% reported in fiscal 2024. Earnings per share (EPS) are now expected in the range of $4-$5 compared with $4.94 reported in fiscal 2024.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -44.58% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Thor Industries has a great Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Thor Industries has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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