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AutoZone (AZO) Up 2.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for AutoZone (AZO - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AutoZone due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

AutoZone Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations

AutoZone reported earnings of $48.11 per share for fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 (ended Aug. 31, 2024), up 3.5% year over year. However, earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $53.31 per share. Net sales grew 9% year over year to $6.20 billion. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.18 billion.

In the reported quarter, domestic commercial sales totaled $1.66 billion, up from $1.50 billion recorded in the year-ago period. Domestic same-store sales (sales at stores open at least for a year) were up 0.2%.

Gross profit increased to $3.26 billion from the prior-year quarter’s $3 billion. Operating profit increased 5.7% year over year to $1.29 billion.

Store Opening & Inventory

During the quarter, AutoZone opened 68 new stores in the United States. It opened 31 new stores in Mexico and 18 in Brazil. It exited the quarter with 6,432 stores in the United States, 794 in Mexico and 127 in Brazil. The total store count was 7,353 as of Aug. 31, 2024.

Its inventory increased 6.8% year over year in the reported quarter. At quarter-end, the inventory per store was $837,000 compared with $807,000 a year ago.

Financials and Share Repurchases

As of Aug. 31, 2024, AutoZone had cash and cash equivalents of $298.2 million, up from $277.1 million as of Aug. 26, 2023. Its total debt amounted to $9 billion as of Aug. 31, 2024, compared with $7.67 billion as of Aug. 26, 2023.

The company repurchased 244,000 shares of its common stock for $710.6 million during the fiscal fourth quarter at an average price of $2,915 per share. At quarter-end, it had $2.2 billion remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -6.37% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, AutoZone has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, AutoZone has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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