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Regeneron to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Biotech giant Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter results on Oct. 31, 2024.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.67 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $11.75 per share.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

REGN Faces Decline in Eylea Sales, Dupixent Fuels Growth

Regeneron is currently facing challenges for its lead drug, Eylea, which is its primary growth engine. 

A significant chunk of Regeneron’s revenues comes from the sale of its lead drug, Eylea, which is approved for various ophthalmology indications (neovascular age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema [“DME”] and macular edema, among others). Eylea was developed in collaboration with Bayer.

While Regeneron records net product sales of Eylea in the United States, Bayer does the same outside the country. The company also records its share of profits/losses in connection with Eylea sales outside the country.

Eylea’s sales have been under pressure in the past few quarters due to competition from Vabysmo.

To counter the decline in Eylea sales, Regeneron developed a higher dose of the drug. In August 2023, the FDA approved aflibercept 8 mg for the treatment of patients with wet age-related macular degeneration, DME and diabetic retinopathy under the brand name Eylea HD.

The initial uptake of Eylea HD is encouraging as Eylea patients transition to the higher dose.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of Eylea sales in the United States is currently pegged at $1.6 billion. Given the fact that Eylea is the prime growth engine for Regeneron, a decline in Eylea sales does not bode well for the company.

Apart from Eylea, profits from asthma drug Dupixent’s sales are a primary growth driver for REGN. Hence, investors should also focus on Dupixent’s performance, sales of which are recorded by Sanofi (SNY - Free Report) . Regeneron has a collaboration agreement with Sanofi for drugs like Dupixent and Kevzara.

While Sanofi records sales, Regeneron records its share of profits/losses in connection with the global sales of the aforementioned drugs.

Sanofi recorded Dupixent sales of €3.5 billion, up 23.8%, driven by strong demand in the approved indications of atopic dermatitis, asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyposis, eosinophilic esophagitis and prurigo nodularis. Hence, Regeneron has likely earned incremental profits from Dupixent in the to-be-reported quarter.

Meanwhile, Regeneron is also looking to diversify its revenue base to reduce its dependence on Eylea for top-line growth and build an oncology franchise, which currently comprises Libtayo.

Growth in Libtayo’s sales has also boosted the top line in recent quarters. Libtayo sales are being driven by growth in demand for non-melanoma skin indications, coupled with increased utilization in both monotherapy and chemotherapy combination settings in lung cancer.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Libtayo’s sales is currently pegged at $308 million.

REGN is currently working to expand Libatyo’s label, in combination with other compounds, in additional indications.

What Our Model Predicts for REGN

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Regeneron this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for REGN is +2.65%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pinned at $11.75 per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $12.06 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

REGN’s Earnings Surprise History

The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 6.01%. In the last reported quarter, REGN beat on earnings by 9.37%.

REGN’s Share Price Performance

Regeneron’s shares have risen 6.2% year to date against the industry’s decline of 3.9%.

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Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +100% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CRSP’s earnings outpaced estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 101.83%. Shares of CRSP have surged 21.7% in the past year.

Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.97% and a Zacks Rank #3.

BIIB beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 10.25%. Biogen is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 30, 2024.


 

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