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Jobs Week continues this morning, further articulating one half of the Fed’s mandate in determining future interest rate cuts. Pre-market futures haven’t changed much in the minutes following the release, which are mixed right now: the Dow -63 points at this hour, the S&P 500 +3 and the Nasdaq +20 (coming off its first all-time closing high since July).
This morning’s jobs figures follow yesterday’s JOLTS numbers — which came in lower-than-expected at 7.44 million open positions for September, down from the 7.86 million reported a month ago — and ahead of Friday’s big Employment Situation report. That is expected to fetch between 100-110K new jobs, with an Unemployment Rate remaining historically low at +4.1%.
ADP Private Sector Jobs Much Higher: +233K
Expectations had been for jobs numbers to revert to cooling down as they had done in the months leading up to the Fed’s 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September. Yet this morning, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) private-sector payrolls for October came in at +253K, far ahead of the 113K analysts had been expecting.
Large companies (more than 500 employees) made up the lion’s share of new job fills this month, +140K, with medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) adding +86K. Small businesses, lacking the healthcare packages and stock options available to their bigger brethren, only brought in +4K new positions this month.
Breaking down the numbers by industry, Education & Health Services led the way with +53K job gains, Trade/Transportation/Utilities a close second at +51K, and Leisure & Hospitality and Construction tied at +37K. The only down sector was Manufacturing, -19K.
Meanwhile, wage gains look to have cooled even further. One of the unique metrics ADP uses is comparing “Job Stayers” with “Job Changers.” Those remaining at their current positions gained an average of +4.6% in wages month over month, with +6.2% gains for those who found new employment. Both of these prints are lower than they have been in recent months.
Hurricanes in Florida and workers strikes in various regions of the U.S. complicate matters for this month’s job count. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning that those striking workers still on payrolls were indeed counted in the index, while the storms in the Southeast moved rapidly instead of lingering long enough to wipe out businesses in the region. Richardson mentioned we are currently seeing a “broadly resilient economy.”
What Will the Fed Do Next Week?
Not only are today’s ADP jobs levels more than +100K higher than expectations, but the previous month’s tally of +143K was this morning revised up to +159K. Clearly these numbers are nowhere near where we were up until mid-2023 or so, but they may justify a re-think on the Fed’s part whether to crank down interest rates again a week from tomorrow or hold steady at 4.50-4.75%.
Q3 GDP Lower than Expected: +2.8%
One day ahead of the U.S. government’s full Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the first print for Q3 GDP is out this morning. A headline of +2.8% is down 20 bps from the prior quarter and 30 bps below expectations. Of course, we will likely see this headliner number revised somewhat over time.
Consumption in the quarter, however, jumped to +3.7% — the highest level since Q1 2023. Meanwhile, the Price Index came in at +1.8%, following +2.5% the previous quarter and the lightest read since the last quarter of last year. Ex-food, energy and housing, prices rose a mere +1.6% last quarter — another fairly Goldilocks number.
Eli Lilly Misses, XPO Beats in Q3
Weightloss drug giant Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) shares are down in today’s pre-market by -10%, following the Big Pharma staple’s surprise miss on earnings and sales. Earnings of $1.18 per share was light the $1.52 expected (though still worlds beyond the 10 cents per share reported a year ago), while revenues reached $11.44 billion, -4.93% from expectations. Its Mounjaro and Zepbound treatments both underperformed in the quarter, and Lilly has ratcheted down guidance.
Global trucking company XPO (XPO - Free Report) , on the other hand, posted a +14.6% earnings beat — $1.02 per share was nicely ahead of the 89 cents expected — on revenues of $2.05 billion in the quarter, +2.29% from analyst estimates. Shares are climbing more than +5% in today’s early trading, adding to the stock’s +37% gains year to date.
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ADP Higher Than Expected
Economic & Earnings Commentary
Jobs Week continues this morning, further articulating one half of the Fed’s mandate in determining future interest rate cuts. Pre-market futures haven’t changed much in the minutes following the release, which are mixed right now: the Dow -63 points at this hour, the S&P 500 +3 and the Nasdaq +20 (coming off its first all-time closing high since July).
This morning’s jobs figures follow yesterday’s JOLTS numbers — which came in lower-than-expected at 7.44 million open positions for September, down from the 7.86 million reported a month ago — and ahead of Friday’s big Employment Situation report. That is expected to fetch between 100-110K new jobs, with an Unemployment Rate remaining historically low at +4.1%.
ADP Private Sector Jobs Much Higher: +233K
Expectations had been for jobs numbers to revert to cooling down as they had done in the months leading up to the Fed’s 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September. Yet this morning, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) private-sector payrolls for October came in at +253K, far ahead of the 113K analysts had been expecting.
Large companies (more than 500 employees) made up the lion’s share of new job fills this month, +140K, with medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) adding +86K. Small businesses, lacking the healthcare packages and stock options available to their bigger brethren, only brought in +4K new positions this month.
Breaking down the numbers by industry, Education & Health Services led the way with +53K job gains, Trade/Transportation/Utilities a close second at +51K, and Leisure & Hospitality and Construction tied at +37K. The only down sector was Manufacturing, -19K.
Meanwhile, wage gains look to have cooled even further. One of the unique metrics ADP uses is comparing “Job Stayers” with “Job Changers.” Those remaining at their current positions gained an average of +4.6% in wages month over month, with +6.2% gains for those who found new employment. Both of these prints are lower than they have been in recent months.
Hurricanes in Florida and workers strikes in various regions of the U.S. complicate matters for this month’s job count. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning that those striking workers still on payrolls were indeed counted in the index, while the storms in the Southeast moved rapidly instead of lingering long enough to wipe out businesses in the region. Richardson mentioned we are currently seeing a “broadly resilient economy.”
What Will the Fed Do Next Week?
Not only are today’s ADP jobs levels more than +100K higher than expectations, but the previous month’s tally of +143K was this morning revised up to +159K. Clearly these numbers are nowhere near where we were up until mid-2023 or so, but they may justify a re-think on the Fed’s part whether to crank down interest rates again a week from tomorrow or hold steady at 4.50-4.75%.
Q3 GDP Lower than Expected: +2.8%
One day ahead of the U.S. government’s full Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the first print for Q3 GDP is out this morning. A headline of +2.8% is down 20 bps from the prior quarter and 30 bps below expectations. Of course, we will likely see this headliner number revised somewhat over time.
Consumption in the quarter, however, jumped to +3.7% — the highest level since Q1 2023. Meanwhile, the Price Index came in at +1.8%, following +2.5% the previous quarter and the lightest read since the last quarter of last year. Ex-food, energy and housing, prices rose a mere +1.6% last quarter — another fairly Goldilocks number.
Eli Lilly Misses, XPO Beats in Q3
Weightloss drug giant Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) shares are down in today’s pre-market by -10%, following the Big Pharma staple’s surprise miss on earnings and sales. Earnings of $1.18 per share was light the $1.52 expected (though still worlds beyond the 10 cents per share reported a year ago), while revenues reached $11.44 billion, -4.93% from expectations. Its Mounjaro and Zepbound treatments both underperformed in the quarter, and Lilly has ratcheted down guidance.
Global trucking company XPO (XPO - Free Report) , on the other hand, posted a +14.6% earnings beat — $1.02 per share was nicely ahead of the 89 cents expected — on revenues of $2.05 billion in the quarter, +2.29% from analyst estimates. Shares are climbing more than +5% in today’s early trading, adding to the stock’s +37% gains year to date.