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Papa John's Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 7, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19.6%.

Papa John's Q3 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 42 cents per share, indicating a decline of 20.8% from the prior-year level. In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings has witnessed upward revisions of 5%. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $491.8 million, implying a decline of 5.9% from the year-ago level.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Factors to Note for Papa John's Q3 Release

The company’s upcoming quarterly results are likely to be hurt by disappointing comparable sales. Sales trends in certain regions, like the Middle East and China, remain challenging. The decline in transactions, caused by a reduction in organic delivery orders, is likely to have negatively impacted PZZA’s performance.

North America's comparable sales experienced a slight decline in the first four weeks of the third quarter. This trend might have continued due to ongoing economic challenges.

However, expansion endeavors, initiatives to enhance sales and focus on digitalization bode well. PZZA has been investing significantly in technology-driven strategies, particularly in digital ordering, aiming to stimulate sales.

We expect domestic company-owned restaurant sales and international revenues to decrease 5.3% and 7% from the year-ago levels, respectively. Our model predicts North America’s commissary revenues and franchise royalties & fees to decline 5.2% and 4.3% from the year-earlier actuals, respectively. We anticipate total comparable sales to decline 5.8% year over year.

High cost is likely to have hurt PZZA’s bottom line. Higher performance-based compensation expenses, depreciation and amortization expenses, as the company continued to invest in its restaurants and technology support, are likely to have driven costs in the quarter to be reported.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for PZZA

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Papa John's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP: Papa John's has an Earnings ESP of +3.41% at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Papa John's currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.38% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS is pegged at 11 cents, which implies an increase of 83.3% from the prior-year actuals.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $234.9 million, which indicates a rise of 33.8% from the year-earlier levels. CAVA has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 257.7%, on average.

Ollie's Bargain (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS of 57 cents implies an increase of 11.8% from the year-ago reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $519 million, implying a jump of 8.1% from the prior-year quarter. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.9%, on average.

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.07% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DRI’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.86 billion, which implies a rise of 4.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DRI’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $2.06 per share in the past 30 days, which indicates 12% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. DRI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.3%, on average.


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