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Steel Dynamics (STLD) Up 2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Steel Dynamics (STLD - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Steel Dynamics due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Steel Dynamics' Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Steel Dynamics logged third-quarter 2024 earnings of $2.05 per share, down from $3.47 in the year-ago quarter. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.98.

Net sales in the reported quarter were down around 5% year over year to around $4.34 billion. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.25 billion. While underlying steel demand was steady in the quarter, Steel Dynamics’ results were impacted by lower average realized steel prices.

Segment Highlights

Steel Dynamics’ net sales from steel operations totaled $2.92 billion in the reported quarter, down roughly 8% year over year. Steel shipments amounted to around 3.2 million tons, modestly higher than the previous year's roughly 3.1 million tons. It was below our estimate of 3.25 million tons. The average external selling price per ton was $1,059, down from $1,191 in the same quarter last year and below our estimate of $1,124 per ton.

Operating income for Steel Dynamics' steel operations in the third quarter was $305 million, down roughly 37% year over year. It was also down sequentially due to a greater decline in realized selling prices compared to scrap costs during the quarter.

Net sales for metals recycling operations reached $565.6 million, rising around 9% year over year. Ferrous shipments totaled around 1.46 million gross tons, above our forecast of 1.44 million.

Steel Dynamics' steel fabrication operations reported sales of around $447.3 million, down around 29% from the previous year’s tally. Shipments amounted to 158,595 tons, which exceeded our estimate of 139,703 tons.

Financial Position

Steel Dynamics ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of around $1.02 billion, up roughly 22% from the prior quarter. Long-term debt was roughly $2.8 billion, up around 27% sequentially. Steel Dynamics ended the quarter with strong liquidity of $3.1 billion.

Steel Dynamics repurchased $310 million of its common stock in the quarter, accounting for 1.6% of its outstanding shares.

Outlook

Steel Dynamics anticipates steel prices to recover with an expected lower domestic interest rate environment, coupled with positive impacts from continuing onshoring of manufacturing businesses and the expectation of significant fixed asset investment from public funding associated with the U.S. Infrastructure, Inflation Reduction Act, and Department of Energy programs. 

Steel Dynamics also expects current trade actions to reduce volumes of unfairly traded steel imports into the United States, including for coated flat-rolled steel. This is expected to have a significant positive impact on the company, as it is the largest non-automotive flat rolled steel coater in the United States. 

The company also noted that its four new flat-rolled steel coating lines, which started operation earlier this year, continue to increase production. With increasing production, Steel Dynamics expects to realize the additional earnings potential in 2025. It is also progressing with the construction of its aluminum flat-rolled products mill and plans to begin operating the mill in mid-2025.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -6.9% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Steel Dynamics has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Steel Dynamics has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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