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Gap Q3 Earnings Coming Up: Here's What Investors Should Know

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The Gap, Inc. (GAP - Free Report) is expected to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Nov. 21, after the closing bell. For revenues, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $3.80 billion, indicating a 0.9% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at 56 cents per share, indicating a 5.1% drop from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings has moved down a penny in the past seven days. 

GAP has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 142.8%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 38.5%.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Factors Likely to Impact Gap’s Q3 Results

Gap’s fiscal third-quarter results are expected to reflect its ability to gain market share and revive its brand’s position. For Banana Republic, management is focused on re-establishing the brand in the premium lifestyle space by fixing fundamentals, assortment architecture, pricing and operational efficiencies. Old Navy’s emphasis on value-driven fashion and Athleta’s strong position in the thriving activewear market are likely to have driven sales. 

Management has been committed to creating a trend-right merchandise assortment, deepening relations with customers via marketing, enhancing the digital commerce agenda and efficiently controlling expenses. Gains from these actions are expected to have bolstered the company’s top-line performance.

On its last reported quarter’s earnings call, management expected net sales to rise slightly year over year from $3.77 billion based on the year-to-date trends. The company expects the gross margin to expand in the range of 50-75 basis points from 41.3% in the year-earlier quarter on lower promotional activity. GAP’s gross margin has been benefiting from lower commodity costs, improved promotions and cost-cutting actions. 

Management had earlier said that the third quarter is likely to benefit by nearly 1 percentage point owing to the shifts in timing. Our model anticipates a sales rise of 0.6% year over year and gross margin expansion of 50 basis points for the third quarter.

However, uncertain macro and consumer environments are expected to have taken a toll on Gap’s performance. Higher operating expenses are likely to have hurt the company's profitability. Management, in its last earnings call, had projected operating expenses of nearly $1.3 billion. Our model predicts year-over-year adjusted operating expense growth of 0.8% for the fiscal third quarter.

The Gap, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

The Gap, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

The Gap, Inc. price-eps-surprise | The Gap, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils for GAP

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Gap this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they’ ae reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Gap currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.05% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

Valuation Picture of GAP Stock

Gap stock is trading at an attractive valuation relative to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the stock is currently trading at 10.81 on a forward 12-month basis, lower than 16.20 of the industry. Also, it is trading lower than its median of 15.18.

The recent market movements show that Gap’s shares have gained 2.9% in the past six months against the industry's 2.4% decline.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies, which according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.59% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here

ANF is likely to register bottom and top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.18 billion, indicating a 11.7% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for ANF’s earnings is pegged at $2.32 per share, implying 26.8% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual. ANF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28%, on average.

lululemon athletica (LULU - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +15.20% and a Zacks Rank of 3. LULU is likely to register bottom and top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.35 billion, indicating 6.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for LULU’s earnings is pegged at $2.73 a share, implying a 7.9% increase from the year-earlier quarter. LULU has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.9%, on average.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3. AEO is likely to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.31 billion, indicating a rise of 0.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 46 cents, down 6.1% from the prior-year quarter. AEO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, on average.


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