We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) indicates that U.S. gasoline inventories have unexpectedly dropped to their lowest levels in two years, driven by robust demand and tighter fuel supplies. EIA reports reflect a 6% increase in gasoline demand during the week ending Nov. 8, justifying the strong fuel demand and supporting higher refining margins. With crack spreads anticipated to remain favorable, Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) , Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) are positioned to benefit significantly.
Crack Spreads Expected to Rise: Key Drivers
The November 2024 short-term Energy outlook from the EIA forecasts a moderate increase in crack spreads, signaling higher refining margins for products like gasoline and diesel. This projection is driven by several critical factors:
Shrinking Refinery Capacity
Planned closures of major U.S. refineries, including the LyondellBasell Houston facility (263,800 barrels per day) in early 2025 and the Phillips 66 refinery near Los Angeles later that year, will significantly reduce domestic refining capacity. This diminished capacity is expected to constrain fuel production, pushing refining margins upward.
Growing Fuel Demand
Rising U.S. demand for gasoline and diesel, fueled by increasing industrial activity and transportation requirements, is anticipated to outpace the reduced refinery output. This imbalance between supply and demand will further elevate crack spreads.
Global Refinery Additions Not Keeping Pace
Although new refinery capacity is being added globally, these expansions are unlikely to fully offset the impact of U.S. refinery closures. As a result, domestic refining margins are set to face continued upward pressure.
The combination of these domestic and global factors creates a market environment conducive to higher refining margins in the near term.
3 Energy Stocks to Keep an Eye on: PSX, MPC, XOM
Widening crack spread, which reflects wider refining margins, will benefit companies with refining operations like Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum and Exxon Mobil Corporation. This is because it will be translated to greater profitability while processing raw crude oil into refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. All the stocks carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Phillips 66
Phillips 66 is a global leader in refining, with a daily crude processing capacity of 1.8 million barrels. The company operates nine refineries across the United States and two in Europe. Its strategic priorities center on ensuring financial stability and maximizing shareholder returns.
Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum has 13 refineries with a refining capacity of 3 million barrels per day. The company’s optimized processing capacity can produce higher-margin products that consumers utilize every day. In the Gulf Coast, the company has among the largest refining capacities.
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil’s downstream operations comprise one of the largest refining businesses in the world, having 21 refineries with distillation capacity of nearly 5 million barrels per day. The company is responsible for selling more than 5.4 million barrels of petroleum products per day.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Shutterstock
Crack Spread to Soar: Add MPC, XOM and PSX to Your Watchlist
Key Takeaways
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) indicates that U.S. gasoline inventories have unexpectedly dropped to their lowest levels in two years, driven by robust demand and tighter fuel supplies. EIA reports reflect a 6% increase in gasoline demand during the week ending Nov. 8, justifying the strong fuel demand and supporting higher refining margins. With crack spreads anticipated to remain favorable, Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) , Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) are positioned to benefit significantly.
Crack Spreads Expected to Rise: Key Drivers
The November 2024 short-term Energy outlook from the EIA forecasts a moderate increase in crack spreads, signaling higher refining margins for products like gasoline and diesel. This projection is driven by several critical factors:
Shrinking Refinery Capacity
Planned closures of major U.S. refineries, including the LyondellBasell Houston facility (263,800 barrels per day) in early 2025 and the Phillips 66 refinery near Los Angeles later that year, will significantly reduce domestic refining capacity. This diminished capacity is expected to constrain fuel production, pushing refining margins upward.
Growing Fuel Demand
Rising U.S. demand for gasoline and diesel, fueled by increasing industrial activity and transportation requirements, is anticipated to outpace the reduced refinery output. This imbalance between supply and demand will further elevate crack spreads.
Global Refinery Additions Not Keeping Pace
Although new refinery capacity is being added globally, these expansions are unlikely to fully offset the impact of U.S. refinery closures. As a result, domestic refining margins are set to face continued upward pressure.
The combination of these domestic and global factors creates a market environment conducive to higher refining margins in the near term.
3 Energy Stocks to Keep an Eye on: PSX, MPC, XOM
Widening crack spread, which reflects wider refining margins, will benefit companies with refining operations like Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum and Exxon Mobil Corporation. This is because it will be translated to greater profitability while processing raw crude oil into refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. All the stocks carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Phillips 66
Phillips 66 is a global leader in refining, with a daily crude processing capacity of 1.8 million barrels. The company operates nine refineries across the United States and two in Europe. Its strategic priorities center on ensuring financial stability and maximizing shareholder returns.
Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum has 13 refineries with a refining capacity of 3 million barrels per day. The company’s optimized processing capacity can produce higher-margin products that consumers utilize every day. In the Gulf Coast, the company has among the largest refining capacities.
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil’s downstream operations comprise one of the largest refining businesses in the world, having 21 refineries with distillation capacity of nearly 5 million barrels per day. The company is responsible for selling more than 5.4 million barrels of petroleum products per day.