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Tesla (TSLA) Up 30.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 30.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tesla due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Tesla Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates
Tesla posted reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 72 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents and rose from the year-ago figure of 66 cents. Total revenues of $25.18 billion lagged the consensus mark of $25.57 billion but rose 7.2% year over year.
Key Takeaways
Tesla delivered 462,890 cars (439,975 Model 3/Y and 22,915 other models) worldwide in the third quarter. Deliveries rose on a year-over-year basis for the first time this year. Third-quarter deliveries also rose 4.3% sequentially. The company produced 469,796 vehicles (443,668 Model 3/Y and 26,128 Model S/X) in the three months ended September.
Total automotive revenues of $20 billion were up 2% year over year but missed our estimate of $22.2 billion. The reported figure also included $739 million from the sale of regulatory credits for EVs, which surged 33.3% year over year. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $18.8 billion, up from $18.5 billion in the year-ago quarter. Automotive gross profit reached $4 billion, with a margin of 20.3%, up from 18.7% recorded in the year-ago quarter, exceeding the 18.3% forecast.
Energy Generation and Storage revenues came in at $2.37 billion, higher than the year-ago quarter’s figure of $1.55 billion and topped our estimate of $2.16 billion. Energy storage deployments came in at 6.9 GWh, up from 4 GWh in the year-ago quarter. Services and Other revenues were $2.79 billion, which increased 29% year over year. achieved a record gross margin of 30.5% in the quarter under review. Gross margin from Services and Other unit was 8.8%, higher than 6% generated in the third quarter of 2023.
Tesla exited third-quarter 2024 with $33.6 billion of cash/cash equivalents/investments of $33.6 billion, up $2.9 billion from the second-quarter level, thanks to the FCF boost. Long-term debt and finance leases, net of the current portion, totaled $5.4 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $6.25 billion in third-quarter 2024. Capital expenditure totaled $3.5 billion. Free cash flow of $2.74 billion was up from $848 million and $1.34 billion generated in the corresponding year-ago quarter and the previous quarter, respectively.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 18.88% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Tesla has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Tesla has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Tesla is part of the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry. Over the past month, Paccar (PCAR - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 8.8%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.
Paccar reported revenues of $7.7 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -6.4%. EPS of $1.85 for the same period compares with $2.34 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Paccar is expected to post earnings of $1.67 per share, indicating a change of -38.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -5.7% over the last 30 days.
Paccar has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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Tesla (TSLA) Up 30.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 30.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tesla due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Tesla Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates
Tesla posted reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 72 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents and rose from the year-ago figure of 66 cents. Total revenues of $25.18 billion lagged the consensus mark of $25.57 billion but rose 7.2% year over year.
Key Takeaways
Tesla delivered 462,890 cars (439,975 Model 3/Y and 22,915 other models) worldwide in the third quarter. Deliveries rose on a year-over-year basis for the first time this year. Third-quarter deliveries also rose 4.3% sequentially. The company produced 469,796 vehicles (443,668 Model 3/Y and 26,128 Model S/X) in the three months ended September.
Total automotive revenues of $20 billion were up 2% year over year but missed our estimate of $22.2 billion. The reported figure also included $739 million from the sale of regulatory credits for EVs, which surged 33.3% year over year. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $18.8 billion, up from $18.5 billion in the year-ago quarter. Automotive gross profit reached $4 billion, with a margin of 20.3%, up from 18.7% recorded in the year-ago quarter, exceeding the 18.3% forecast.
Energy Generation and Storage revenues came in at $2.37 billion, higher than the year-ago quarter’s figure of $1.55 billion and topped our estimate of $2.16 billion. Energy storage deployments came in at 6.9 GWh, up from 4 GWh in the year-ago quarter. Services and Other revenues were $2.79 billion, which increased 29% year over year. achieved a record gross margin of 30.5% in the quarter under review. Gross margin from Services and Other unit was 8.8%, higher than 6% generated in the third quarter of 2023.
Tesla exited third-quarter 2024 with $33.6 billion of cash/cash equivalents/investments of $33.6 billion, up $2.9 billion from the second-quarter level, thanks to the FCF boost. Long-term debt and finance leases, net of the current portion, totaled $5.4 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $6.25 billion in third-quarter 2024. Capital expenditure totaled $3.5 billion. Free cash flow of $2.74 billion was up from $848 million and $1.34 billion generated in the corresponding year-ago quarter and the previous quarter, respectively.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 18.88% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Tesla has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Tesla has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Tesla is part of the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry. Over the past month, Paccar (PCAR - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 8.8%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.
Paccar reported revenues of $7.7 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -6.4%. EPS of $1.85 for the same period compares with $2.34 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Paccar is expected to post earnings of $1.67 per share, indicating a change of -38.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -5.7% over the last 30 days.
Paccar has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.