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Why Is Q3 Earnings Beat Not Enough to Buy Clean Energy Stock?

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Earlier this month, natural gas supplier Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE - Free Report) reported strong third quarter earnings, with 9% revenue growth and a 20% earnings beat, driving a 5% share price increase. With its market-leading renewable natural gas (“RNG”) exposure and aggressive capacity expansion plans, CLNE could deliver compelling results in the foreseeable future, but investors should consider a few issues, including  valuation concerns, before buying.

CLNE’s Business Overview

Clean Energy Fuels is focused on providing RNG and regular natural gas options like compressed and liquefied natural gas. With more than 600 fueling stations across the United States and Canada, it primarily supports heavy-duty trucks and other large vehicles. The company is dedicated to increasing its RNG production, aiming to play a big role in helping the transportation industry switch to cleaner energy.
 

Clean Energy Fuels Corp.
Image Source: Clean Energy Fuels Corp.

Clean Energy Q3 Earnings: Positive Takeaways

CLNE’s third-quarter results show signs of improvement. During this period, the company sold 59.6 million gallons of RNG, up from 56.7 million in the same quarter last year. Despite a net loss, the company posted a positive non-GAAP EPS and an adjusted EBITDA of $21.3 million, up from $14.2 million in the year-ago quarter. Clean Energy’s operational and maintenance services have also demonstrated steady growth, contributing nearly 14% to revenues in the first nine months of 2024, up 7.6% year over year. These recurring revenues, coupled with a growing station construction business that rose 8% from a year ago, enhance the company’s financial stability.

Despite these encouraging numbers, the report revealed several concerns that continue to weigh on the stock, which we detail below.

Multiple Red Flags for CLNE Stock

Low Credit Prices for LCFS and RINs: In the third quarter of 2024, the average Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit price dropped to $55.67, significantly lower than $74.20 in the corresponding period of 2023. This decline impacted Clean Energy's RNG revenues.

Potential Impact of Expiring Tax Credits: The uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the Alternative Fuel Tax Credit (“AFTC”), which contributed approximately $22 million to Clean Energy Fuels' 2024 revenues, could weigh on its financials in 2025. If the AFTC is not extended, this revenue source will be lost, affecting profitability.

Delayed Ramp-Up of RNG Projects: Clean Energy Fuels’ RNG production remains in a ramp-up phase, with output expected to increase from 4-6 million gallons in 2025. However, the company's largest RNG project in Idaho has faced operational costs during construction, negatively impacting quarterly financials.

What About Clean Energy’s Valuation?

CLNE doesn’t look very appealing from a valuation standpoint. When comparing its EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/ Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization) — a common measure of a company’s worth — it doesn’t stand out as competitive against other renewable energy firms. Its current market value of $621 million is a sharp drop from its previous peak of $3.5 billion, highlighting this decline. Additionally, despite its low stock price, the company has a poor Value Score of D, raising further concerns.
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Price Performance Reflects CLNE’s Struggles

Shares of Clean Energy Fuels have lost more than 24% so far this year, significantly underperforming the industry and the S&P 500.

CLNE Year-to-Date Stock Performance

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Notwithstanding this share price disappointment, there are a few positive factors working in the company’s favor.

Positive Factors Amid Share Price Challenges

Expanding Strategic Partnerships and Station Network Growth: Clean Energy Fuels’ ongoing collaboration with Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) highlights its ability to secure influential partners. The recently opened Bordentown, NJ station, part of the Amazon contract, adds to a network that has grown nearly 15% in 2024. These strategically placed stations cater to Amazon trucks and other heavy-duty fleets, preparing Clean Energy for increased demand.

Promising RNG Production and Strategic Maas Energy Partnership: CLNE’s partnership with Maas Energy is accelerating its RNG production pipeline, with six projects operational and two more set for completion by late 2025. The covered lagoon method utilized by Maas ensures efficient dairy-based RNG production. With expansion plans across Georgia, Florida and South Dakota, Clean Energy is poised to strengthen its upstream capacity, aligning well with the growing demand for renewable energy in transportation and supporting long-term revenue streams.

Strategic Shift Toward Production: Clean Energy Fuels is increasing its ownership of RNG production facilities through partnerships with BP plc (BP - Free Report) and TotalEnergies (TTE - Free Report) , positioning itself for greater profitability. By transitioning from a distributor to a producer, the company stands to gain from higher margins and access to additional environmental credits.

Final Verdict: CLNE Stock is a Hold

While Clean Energy Fuels' Q3 earnings showed notable revenue growth and profitability improvements, these positives are overshadowed by significant challenges. Factors like declining credit prices, uncertainty around tax credits, and project delays raise questions about the company's near-term prospects. Combined with weak valuation metrics and a struggling share price, these concerns suggest that the earnings beat alone may not be enough to justify a bullish stance on the stock.

Clean Energy Fuels currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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