Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Abercrombie Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat: What's Behind the 5% Stock Dip?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF - Free Report) posted strong third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with sales and earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and showing year-over-year improvements. This marked the seventh consecutive quarter of top and bottom-line beats for the company.

The strong performance was fueled by substantial growth across regions and brands, especially in the Americas and the Abercrombie brand. The company’s earnings were supported by robust revenue growth, and enhanced gross and operating margins.

Abercrombie’s earnings per share (EPS) of $2.50 in the fiscal third quarter improved 36.6% from $1.83 in the year-ago quarter. Moreover, the bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.32. The robust earnings performance can be attributed to strong top-line growth, coupled with improved gross and operating margins.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Net sales of $1.21 billion advanced 14% year over year on both reported and constant-currency basis, and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18 billion. This marked the sixth straight quarter of double-digit net sales growth. ANF’s comparable sales improved 16%. The top-line beat was driven by broad-based net sales growth across regions, brands and channels, led by strong traffic.

Abercrombie’s shares fell 5.1% yesterday despite reporting strong third-quarter fiscal 2024 results and raising its fiscal 2024 outlook. Although the company’s top line improved year over year, it marked a slowdown from the 21% sales growth reported in the second quarter of fiscal 2024, which displeased investors. Additionally, the gross margin saw pronounced impacts of higher freight costs, which are expected to continue in the fiscal fourth quarter. Consequently, the company anticipates a flat gross margin rate for the fiscal fourth quarter, lowering optimism on the stock.

Shares of this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company have soared 66.2% year to date compared with the industry's 16.2% growth.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Abercrombie’s Regional & Brand Sales Drive Growth

Each of the company’s regions grew in the double-digits in the reported quarter. Sales in the Americas improved 14% year over year to $986.4 million. Additionally, sales rose 15% to $181.6 million in the EMEA and 32% to $40.9 million in APAC. This marked the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit sales growth in the Americas and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit growth in EMEA. Sales growth in EMEA and APAC was driven by strength in London and Shanghai. In APAC, sales growth was led by strength in the digital platforms. Comparable sales (comps) rose 16% each in the Americas and APAC regions, and EMEA registered 13% comps growth.

Net sales improved 15% year over year to $629.8 million for the Abercrombie brand. Moreover, sales increased 14% to $579.1 million at Hollister, reflecting strong traffic across channels, and improved unit selling and average unit retail (AUR) expansion from lower promotions. The Abercrombie brand contributed 52% to the total company sales, whereas Hollister contributed 48% to sales. Comparable sales grew 11% for Abercrombie and 21% for Hollister in the reported quarter.

Our model predicted sales growth of 12.4% for the Abercrombie brand and 7.7% for Hollister for third-quarter fiscal 2024. We estimated sales to increase 10.6% in the Americas, 6.4% in EMEA and 15.7% in APAC for the fiscal third quarter.

Abercrombie & Fitch Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Abercrombie & Fitch Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Abercrombie & Fitch Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Abercrombie & Fitch Company Quote

ANF’s Quarterly Performance: Improved Margins & Expenses

Abercrombie’s gross margin of 65.1% in the fiscal third quarter expanded 20 basis points (bps) year over year. In dollar terms, the gross profit of $786.9 million increased 14.8% year over year. The increase was driven by higher AUR due to lower promotions, offset by higher freight costs. We expected a flat gross margin of 64.9%, with a 10.1% year-over-year increase in dollar terms.

Operating expenses, excluding other operating income, increased 11.5% year over year to $609 million. As a percentage of sales, operating expenses, excluding other operating income, of 50.4% declined 130 bps from the year-ago quarter.

The company reported an operating income of $179 million, up 30% from $138 million in the year-ago period. It registered an operating margin of 14.8%, up 170 bps from 13.1% in the year-ago quarter.

We estimated a 10-bps increase in the adjusted operating expense rate to 51.8% for the fiscal third quarter.

ANF’s Financial Health Looks Stable

Abercrombie ended the fiscal third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $683 million, no net long-term borrowings, and stockholders’ equity of $1.25 billion, excluding non-controlling interests.

The company had a liquidity of $1.1 billion at the end of the fiscal third quarter, which included cash and equivalents, and $450 million of borrowings available under the ABL Facility. Net cash provided by operating activities was $403 million as of Nov. 2, 2024.

Abercrombie’s Q4 & FY24 Outlook

Abercrombie is optimistic about the upcoming holiday season, driven by positive early response to its holiday assortments. Consequently, it provided an upbeat view for fourth-quarter fiscal 2024.

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, net sales are projected to rise 5-7% from the $1.45 billion reported in the year-ago period. This includes a $80-million headwind from the calendar shift and an extra 53rd week in fiscal 2023. Adverse currency is expected to impact sales by 100 bps. Adjusting for the lost week and currency headwind, the company anticipates year-over-year sales growth of 11-13%. Top-line growth is expected to be driven by strength across regions and brands.

The operating margin for the fiscal fourth quarter is expected to be 16%, suggesting an increase from the 15.3% delivered in fourth-quarter fiscal 2023. The company expects the operating margin expansion to be mainly driven by robust expense leverage, while the gross margin is expected to be unchanged from the prior-year quarter. The neutral gross margin is likely to stem from the impacts of higher freight costs and foreign currency, offset by lower promotions. The effective tax rate is expected to be in the high 20s.

Backed by the fourth-quarter expectations and a strong holiday season, the company raised its sales outlook for fiscal 2024. It expects year-over-year sales growth of 14-15% for fiscal 2024 compared with a 12-13% rise mentioned earlier. Abercrombie anticipates this lost 53rd selling week to reduce fiscal 2024 sales by $50 million or 1.2 percentage points. It also expects slight adverse impacts of foreign currency.

The company anticipates an operating margin of 15% for fiscal 2024, which is at the high end of the previously stated 14-15%. The increased operating margin is expected to be driven by a gross margin expansion and operating expense leverage. Abercrombie anticipates an effective tax rate in the mid-20s for fiscal 2024. Capital expenditure is estimated to be $170 million for fiscal 2024.

For fiscal 2024, Abercrombie plans 60 store openings, together with 60 remodels and rightsizes, and 40 closures. Of the openings, it expects around 40 to be Abercrombie stores and about 20 to be Hollister stores.

Other Solid Picks in ANF’s Industry

We have highlighted three other top-ranked stocks from the same industry, namely The Gap Inc. (GAP - Free Report) , Deckers Outdoor (DECK - Free Report) and Tapestry (TPR - Free Report) .

Gap, a premier international specialty retailer offering a diverse range of clothing, accessories and personal care products, currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). GAP has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 101.2%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gap’s current financial-year sales and earnings per share suggests growth of 0.7% and 38.5%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure.

Deckers is a leading designer, producer and brand manager of innovative, niche footwear and accessories developed for outdoor sports and other lifestyle-related activities. The company presently sports a Zacks Rank of 1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers’ current financial-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 13.6% and 12.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 41.1%, on average.

Tapestry is a designer and marketer of fine accessories and gifts for women and men in the United States and internationally. TPR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tapestry’s current financial-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 1.4% and 6.3%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. TPR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.3%, on average.

Published in