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Why Is Chipotle (CMG) Up 11.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 11.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Chipotle due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Chipotle Q3 Earnings Top, Revenues Lag Estimates

Chipotle reported mixed third-quarter results. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the seventh consecutive quarter but revenues missed the same after beating in the preceding four quarters.

However, both top and bottom lines increased year over year. The company benefited from new restaurant openings and a rise in comparable restaurant sales. Higher transactions and an increase in average check aided the company’s performance.

CMG’s Q3 Earnings & Revenue Discussion

In the quarter under review, CMG reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 27 cents, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents. The bottom line increased 17.4% from 23 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

Quarterly revenues of $2,793.6 million missed the consensus mark of $2,817 million. However, the top line rose 13% on a year-over-year basis. This upside was driven by strong comparable restaurant sales growth backed by higher transactions of 3.3% as well as 2.7% rise in average check.

Comparable restaurant sales in the third quarter rose 6% compared with 11.1% growth in the previous quarter. Digital sales contributed 34% to total food and beverage revenues.

Chipotle’s Restaurant Openings

Strength in new restaurant openings aided the company’s performance in the third quarter. In the reported quarter, Chipotle opened 86 new restaurants in 73 locations, including a Chipotlane. It also opened an international licensed restaurant.

Record-breaking openings in new markets in Canada further supported growth. Next month, the company is set to surpass the milestone of 50 restaurants in Canada, reflecting substantial growth. Unit-level economics and returns in Canada remain comparable to those in the United States, supporting continued expansion efforts, with plans to further accelerate growth in Canada in 2025.

CMG’s Costs, Operating Highlights & Net Income

In the third quarter of 2024, food, beverage and packaging costs, as a percentage of revenues, came in at 30.6% compared with 29.7% reported in the prior-year quarter. The rise in costs was driven by inflation impacting various ingredients, especially avocados and dairy, along with increased ingredient usage aimed at delivering consistent, generous portions. Additionally, a shift in protein mix, spurred by the popularity of the Smoked Brisket limited-time offering, contributed to the cost uptick. This was partly offset by the positive impact of menu price hikes from the previous year.

In the quarter under discussion, the restaurant-level operating margin reached 25.5%, down from 26.3% reported in the prior-year period.

Adjusted net income in the reported quarter amounted to $366.6 million, up 16.6% year over year.

Balance Sheet of Chipotle

As of Sept. 30, 2024, the company reported cash and cash equivalents of $698.5 million compared with $560.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2023.

As of Sept. 30, 2024, inventory totaled $49.8 million compared with $39.3 million as of Dec. 31, 2023. Goodwill (as a percentage of total assets) reached 0.3% at the end of the third quarter of 2024.

CMG’s Outlook

For 2024, management continues to expect comps growth in the mid to high-single-digit range. CMG anticipates to open 285-315 new restaurants in 2024. It expects tax rate in the range of 24-26% in 2024.

For 2025, management expects to open between 315 and 345 new company-operated restaurants, with more than 80% featuring a Chipotlane drive-thru.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, Chipotle has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, Chipotle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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