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Why Is Boise Cascade (BCC) Up 5.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Boise Cascade (BCC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Boise Cascade due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Boise Cascade Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates, Sales Beat, Both Dip Y/Y

Boise Cascade reported tepid third-quarter 2024 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and declining year over year. Although quarterly sales marginally topped the consensus mark, it declined year over year.

The company's quarterly performance was marred by softer sales volume and lower sales prices across the products it manufactures and distributes. The downtrend in volumes can be attributed to the soft single-family residential demand, which is the key driver of BCC’s sales.

The slow demand environment is likely to take a toll on the company’s prospects, with seasonality during the winter months being around the corner. However, the optimism regarding the Fed reducing interest rates and its key strategic investment initiatives is expected to foster growth in the upcoming period. Also, it aims to allocate its capital and ensure shareholders’ value, besides focusing on business growth.

Detailed Discussion of BCC

Boise Cascade reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.33, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.37 by 1.7%. In the year-ago quarter, the company reported an adjusted EPS of $3.58.

Quarterly sales of $1.714 billion topped the consensus mark of $1.711 million by 0.2% but dropped 7% year over year.

Adjusted EBITDA of $154.5 million was down 29% from the prior-year quarter.

Boise Cascade’s Segmental Analysis

Wood Products: The segment’s sales (including sales to the BMD segment) of $453.9 million were down 12% from the prior-year period’s level. The downside in sales was due to lower plywood sales prices, reduced LVL and I-joist prices (collectively referred to as EWP) and a drop in lumber and residual byproducts sales. Adjusted EBITDA was $77.4 million, down 37% from $122.9 million reported a year ago. During the quarter, the segment’s costs and expenses — as a percentage of segment sales — increased year over year to 88.1% from 80.7%. The increase in materials, labor and other operating expenses contributed to the uptick.

Building Materials Distribution or BMD: Sales in the segment plunged 6% year over year to $1.57 billion, primarily due to a sales price decrease of 6%, as sales volumes remained flat year over year. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA fell 16% year over year to $87.7 million from $104.9 million. The segment’s costs and expenses — as a percentage of segment sales — increased year over year to 95.2% from 94.2%. The increase in selling and distribution expenses, along with depreciation and amortization, caused the uptick.

BCC’s Financials

The total liquidity of Boise Cascade, as of Sept. 30, 2024, was $1.157 billion, down from $1.35 billion reported at the end of Dec. 31, 2023. Total liquidity includes $395.7 million of undrawn committed bank line availability and cash and cash equivalents. At the third-quarter end, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $761.6 million, down from $949.6 million at 2023-end.
Long-term debt was $445.9 million, marginally up from $445.3 million reported in 2023-end.

As of the nine months ended on Sept. 30, 2024, net cash provided by operations was $343.8 million, down from $521.1 million in the year-ago period.

During the first nine months of 2024, the company repurchased 1,232,345 shares of its common stock for a total value of $158.5 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, Boise Cascade has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Boise Cascade has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Boise Cascade is part of the Zacks Building Products - Wood industry. Over the past month, UFP Industries (UFPI - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 6.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.

UFP Industries reported revenues of $1.65 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -9.8%. EPS of $1.64 for the same period compares with $2.10 a year ago.

UFP Industries is expected to post earnings of $1.23 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -24.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -10.4%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for UFP Industries. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.


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