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Why Is Zillow (ZG) Up 11.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Zillow Group (ZG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 11.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Zillow due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Zillow Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Solid Growth in Several Verticals

Zillow Group reported healthy third-quarter 2024 results, wherein both the top and bottom lines surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company witnessed a revenue expansion year over year, backed by strong momentum in all segments.

The company has a solid brand position in the residential real estate industry. It boasts 233 million average monthly unique users across the Zillow ecosystem of apps and sites. Zillow’s advanced technology, such as its New Construction marketplace Real Time Touring and software solutions from ShowingTime+, are gaining strong popularity.

Net Income

In the reported quarter, net loss on a GAAP basis was $20 million or 8 cents per share compared with a net loss of $28 million or 12 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. 

On a non-GAAP basis, the company’s net income was $89 million or a gain of 35 cents per share, compared with $83 million of 33 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Non-GAAP net income for the reported quarter beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3 cents.

Revenues

Quarterly net sales improved to $581 million from $496 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Healthy growth in the residential and rental segment boosted the top line. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $558 million.

Residential revenues were $405 million, up 12% year over year from $362 million reported in the year-ago quarter, backed by solid growth in Premier Agent Business. Growth in the New Construction business, healthy demand for ShowingTime+ software solutions and contributions from Follow Up Boss also supported net sales in this vertical.

Rental revenues in the September quarter improved 24% year over year to $123 million, backed by strong signups for multi-family properties. During the quarter, multifamily properties advertising in Zillow reached 47,000, up 34% year over year.

The mortgages segment generated $39 million in revenues, up from $24 million in the year-ago quarter, driven by solid growth in purchase loan origination.

Other Details

Gross profit for the third quarter was $441 million compared with $386 million in the prior-year quarter, with respective margins of 76% and 78%. Operating expenses for the quarter were $486 million compared with the year-earlier quarter’s tally of $439 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $127 million, up from $107 million in the year-ago quarter, driven primarily by higher-than-expected Residential revenues and cost management.

Cash Flow & Liquidity

Zillow Group generated $306 million in cash from operating activities in the first nine months of 2024 compared with $268 million in the prior-year period. As of Sept. 30, 2024, the company had $1.07 billion in cash and cash equivalents with $418 million of convertible senior notes, current portion.

Outlook

For the fourth quarter of 2024, Zillow Group expects total revenues in the range of $525-$540 million. Residential revenues are expected to be in the band of $364-$374 million. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be in the range of $90-$105 million. Management expects double-digit revenue growth for 2024, with expansion of adjusted EBITDA margin.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -28% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Zillow has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Zillow has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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