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Although most attention for this trading week is focused on tomorrow morning, when November Consumer Price Index (CPI) results are released, this morning is actually fairly active. A separate inflation gauge and a barometer on small businesses joins still more off-season earnings results.
Unfortunately, any reaction to this morning’s data so far has had a dimming effect on pre-market futures: the Dow is currently -86 points, the S&P 500 is flat and the Nasdaq +20 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is -3 points at this hour.
Small-Business Confidence Breaks Out
Finally reporting a headline number higher than the long-term average of 98, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index posted 101.7 for November. This is the first time this survey has landed above 98 in 34 months, during a time the survey called “record high uncertainty” for small business owners.
With a new business-friendly (anti-regulatory) Trump administration coming to the White House on January 20th of next year, and that administration’s reported dedication to high tariffs coming to imported goods, small businesses see opportunities here they haven’t over most of the past three years. Last month, +14% of small business owners said it’s a good time to expand business — the highest print since June of 2021.
Q3 Productivity Steady, Labor Costs Come Down
The final non-farm print on Q3 Productivity is out this morning, in-line with the prior read of +2.2%. This is lower than pre-Covid levels, and certainly lower than where we’ve seen inflation come in on a monthly basis, but it remains the strongest level we’ve seen since Q4 of 2023.
Meanwhile, Unit Labor Costs were cut more than in half on this latest revision — moving from +1.9% last reported to +0.8%, the lowest print since the last quarter of 2022. This is where you want these numbers to be if you continue to look for a soft landing in the economy: steady productivity without getting too hot, while bringing wages down notably from the previous quarter.
Earnings Report Roundup: AutoZone, G-III and United Natural Foods
Auto parts retailer AutoZone (AZO - Free Report) posted light misses on both top and bottom lines for its fiscal Q1 ahead of today’s open. Earnings of $32.52 per share was -3% below the Zacks consensus, while revenues of $4.28 billion in the quarter was -0.30%. Shares are dead flat in early trading on the news, holding onto their +28% gains year to date.
The parent company for Calvin Klein, Donna Karan, Tommy Hilfiger, etc. is G-III Apparel Group (GIII - Free Report) , and it presented mixed results in its fiscal Q3 report this morning. Earnings of $2.59 per share amounted to a +14.6% beat, while $1.09 billion in quarterly sales came in -1.24% short of expectations. Shares are selling off -2% on the news, digging its -5.8% hole year to date a little deeper.
The more impressive quarterly report this morning came from United Natural Foods (UNFI - Free Report) , which posted a +1500% earnings surprise — +$0.16 per share versus expectations of +0.01. Revenues of $7.87 billion came in +3.3% better than the Zacks consensus and above the $7.55 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Shares are up +13% on the news, adding to the +49% gains the company has made year to date.
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Economic Data Deluge
Although most attention for this trading week is focused on tomorrow morning, when November Consumer Price Index (CPI) results are released, this morning is actually fairly active. A separate inflation gauge and a barometer on small businesses joins still more off-season earnings results.
Unfortunately, any reaction to this morning’s data so far has had a dimming effect on pre-market futures: the Dow is currently -86 points, the S&P 500 is flat and the Nasdaq +20 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is -3 points at this hour.
Small-Business Confidence Breaks Out
Finally reporting a headline number higher than the long-term average of 98, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index posted 101.7 for November. This is the first time this survey has landed above 98 in 34 months, during a time the survey called “record high uncertainty” for small business owners.
With a new business-friendly (anti-regulatory) Trump administration coming to the White House on January 20th of next year, and that administration’s reported dedication to high tariffs coming to imported goods, small businesses see opportunities here they haven’t over most of the past three years. Last month, +14% of small business owners said it’s a good time to expand business — the highest print since June of 2021.
Q3 Productivity Steady, Labor Costs Come Down
The final non-farm print on Q3 Productivity is out this morning, in-line with the prior read of +2.2%. This is lower than pre-Covid levels, and certainly lower than where we’ve seen inflation come in on a monthly basis, but it remains the strongest level we’ve seen since Q4 of 2023.
Meanwhile, Unit Labor Costs were cut more than in half on this latest revision — moving from +1.9% last reported to +0.8%, the lowest print since the last quarter of 2022. This is where you want these numbers to be if you continue to look for a soft landing in the economy: steady productivity without getting too hot, while bringing wages down notably from the previous quarter.
Earnings Report Roundup: AutoZone, G-III and United Natural Foods
Auto parts retailer AutoZone (AZO - Free Report) posted light misses on both top and bottom lines for its fiscal Q1 ahead of today’s open. Earnings of $32.52 per share was -3% below the Zacks consensus, while revenues of $4.28 billion in the quarter was -0.30%. Shares are dead flat in early trading on the news, holding onto their +28% gains year to date.
The parent company for Calvin Klein, Donna Karan, Tommy Hilfiger, etc. is G-III Apparel Group (GIII - Free Report) , and it presented mixed results in its fiscal Q3 report this morning. Earnings of $2.59 per share amounted to a +14.6% beat, while $1.09 billion in quarterly sales came in -1.24% short of expectations. Shares are selling off -2% on the news, digging its -5.8% hole year to date a little deeper.
The more impressive quarterly report this morning came from United Natural Foods (UNFI - Free Report) , which posted a +1500% earnings surprise — +$0.16 per share versus expectations of +0.01. Revenues of $7.87 billion came in +3.3% better than the Zacks consensus and above the $7.55 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Shares are up +13% on the news, adding to the +49% gains the company has made year to date.