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Lowe's Vs Home Depot: Which Stock is Best Positioned for 2025 Growth?

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Being the two dominant players in the home improvement retail market, The Home Depot Inc. (HD - Free Report) and Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW - Free Report) have consistently captured the attention of investors. HD and LOW are both highly credible names in the home improvement sector, with decades of experience and strong reputations.

Home Depot’s credibility is bolstered by its expansive Pro customer network and consistent operational excellence. Its scale and efficiency have made it the go-to choice for contractors and large-scale projects.

Lowe’s credibility is rooted in its focus on DIY customers and personalized service. Its efforts to cater to homeowners through tailored product offerings and localized strategies have resonated well with its target demographic. Additionally, Lowe’s partnerships and initiatives to enhance customer experience have strengthened its standing in the market.

Stepping into 2025, let us dive into the two companies’ key statistics, market share, valuation, dividend strategies and stock performances to determine which is better positioned for growth.

LOW vs. HD: Key Statistics & Market Share

Home Depot and Lowe’s have been competing for the top spot in the home improvement market for more than a decade. While these companies target the same set of customers with similar product lines, there is a stark contrast in their sizes, branding and supply-chain strategies. Commanding a market cap of $381.7 billion, Home Depot is much bigger compared with Lowe’s, which has a market cap of $139.2 billion.

Home Depot holds the lead with a market share of approximately 47%, whereas Lowe’s commands around 28%. In fiscal 2023, HD reported revenues of $152.7 billion compared with Lowe’s $86.4 billion. Despite Home Depot’s dominance, Lowe’s has been narrowing the gap in recent years through targeted strategies.

 

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LOW vs. HD: Earnings Estimate Revision Trend

From the outlook perspective, Home Depot continues to project modest growth in revenues and EPS, while Lowe’s expects to witness year-over-year declines in both.

Home Depot’s fiscal 2024 revenues are projected to grow 3.9% year over year to $158.6 billion and EPS is expected to increase 0.1% year over year to $15.12. HD’s EPS estimates for fiscal 2024 moved up 0.7% in the last 60 days. Home Depot’s annual earnings are slated to increase 3.4% year over year to $163.9 billion in fiscal 2025, with EPS anticipated to expand 3.5% to $15.65 per share.

HD Earnings Estimate Revision Trend

 

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Meanwhile, Lowe’s fiscal 2024 revenues are expected to decline 3.5% year over year to $83.3 billion and EPS is likely to fall 10% to $11.88. LOW’s EPS estimates for fiscal 2024 have moved down 0.7% in the past 60 days. Lowe’s annual earnings are slated to increase 1.1% to $84.3 billion in fiscal 2025, with EPS anticipated to expand 5.7% to $12.56 per share.

LOW Earnings Estimate Revision Trend

 

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Therefore, we can clearly see that Home Depot has seen analysts raising estimates, while LOW witnessed a downtrend in estimate revisions. Moreover, HD’s estimates indicate year-over-year increases in revenues and earnings for this year, whereas LOW’s estimates suggest declines.

LOW, HD Stock Performance & Valuation Comparison

Over the last year, Lowe’s stock had the edge in terms of performance, with LOW having a total return of more than 13%,  including dividends. This has noticeably lagged the benchmark S&P 500’s return of +26% but has topped Home Depot’s 11% growth.

In the past year, the performances of these home improvement giants have also vastly trailed the broader Retail-Wholesale sector’s total return of +31%.

HD-LOW One-Year Stock Price Performance

 

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From a valuation perspective, HD and LOW have similar forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples. Home Depot trades at 24.6X, which is above its 5-year median of 22.07X, and Lowe’s is trading at 19.71X, above its 5-year median of 17.45X.

 

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Meanwhile, the Zacks Retail-Wholesale currently trades at a 24.8X forward P/E multiple, which is essentially above the multiples of Home Depot and Lowe’s. Hence, both companies look relatively cheaper than the broader sector.

Home Depot and Lowe’s currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

LOW vs. HD: Dividend Analysis

Apart from stability and growth potential, Home Depot and Lowe’s tend to attract investors with their strong record of paying regular dividends. These companies have consistently raised dividend payouts, reflecting their confidence in their earnings growth potential.

Home Depot offers a dividend yield of 2.3%, supported by a payout ratio of 60%, signaling a balance between rewarding shareholders and reinvesting in the business. HD has a five-year dividend growth rate of 11.2%. (Check HD’s dividend history here)

Lowe’s, with a dividend yield of 1.8% and a lower payout ratio of 39%, provides more room for dividend growth. LOW has a five-year dividend growth rate of 20.3%. (Check LOW’s dividend history here.)

Verdict: HD vs. LOW Stock

While Home Depot boasts a larger market share, higher revenues and a more established Pro customer base, Lowe’s is closing the gap with growth initiatives and cost efficiencies. For conservative investors seeking stability, Home Depot remains the safer bet. However, those with a higher risk tolerance might find Lowe’s a compelling choice for potential upside in 2025.

Both companies are well-positioned for growth, but the better choice ultimately depends on individual investment goals and risk preferences.


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