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IBM Stock Before Q4 Earnings: A Smart Buy or Risky Investment?
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International Business Machines Corporation (IBM - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 29. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $17.6 billion and $3.74 per share, respectively. Earnings estimates for IBM for 2024 have remained steady at $10.16 per share over the past 60 days while the same for 2025 have declined to $10.61 per share from $10.63.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
IBM Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Surprise History
The cloud and data platform delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average, beating estimates on each occasion. In the last reported quarter, the company pulled off an earnings surprise of 1.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for IBM for the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
IBM currently has an ESP of 0.00% with a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
During the to-be-reported quarter, IBM collaborated with the defense intelligence enterprise Janes. The partnership will work toward augmenting the decision-making process in defense operations with trusted AI (artificial intelligence) applications by integrating Janes’ extensive dataset with IBM watsonx AI and data platform, utilizing the IBM Granite model. By combining generative AI capabilities with an efficient data retrieval system, this integration will offer AI-assisted scenario modeling and retrieval augmented data analysis that helps in mission planning. IBM also inked a partnership with Lockheed Martin to integrate IBM Granite large language models to expedite AI-driven innovation in aerospace and defense applications. These are likely to have generated incremental revenues in the Consulting segment.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Consulting segment is pegged at $5.28 billion, while our model projects revenues of $5.39 billion.
During the reported quarter, IBM introduced the IBM Guardium Data Security Center to help organizations secure their data in diverse environments throughout its lifecycle with integrated controls. The platform features a single dashboard consolidating all data assets, allowing security teams to streamline monitoring, governance, detection, AI security management and cryptography workflows. This software not only manages security risks for sensitive AI data and models but also helps identify AI deployments, ensuring compliance and protecting crucial data through a centralized view of assets.
IBM also completed the acquisition of Prescinto, a prominent provider of asset performance management software-as-a-service tailored for the renewable energy industry. With AI at the core, Prescinto’s cutting-edge technology addresses some vital functionalities of asset performance management of the renewable energy sector. This solution uses high-definition maps, real-time monitoring and custom alerts to provide a comprehensive and centralized visualization of assets. These are likely to have translated into incremental revenues in the Software segment.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Software segment is pegged at $7.84 billion, while our model projects revenues of $7.43 billion.
However, despite solid hybrid cloud and AI traction, IBM faces stiff competition from Amazon Web Services and Microsoft’s Azure. The company’s ongoing, heavily time-consuming business model transition to the cloud is a challenging task. Weakness in its traditional business and foreign exchange volatility remain significant concerns.
Price Performance
Over the past year, IBM has gained 28.3% compared with no change for the industry. It has outperformed peers like Microsoft Corporation (MSFT - Free Report) but lagged Oracle Corporation (ORCL - Free Report) over this period.
One-Year IBM Stock Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Valuation Metric
From a valuation standpoint, IBM appears to be trading at a premium relative to the industry and is trading well above its mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company shares currently trade at 20.96 forward earnings, higher than 19.93 for the industry and the stock’s mean of 13.18.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Considerations
IBM aims to benefit from the increasing propensity of business enterprises to undertake a cloud-agnostic and interoperable approach to secure multi-cloud management with a diligent focus on hybrid cloud and generative AI solutions. With a surge in traditional cloud-native workloads and associated applications, along with a rise in generative AI deployment and quantum computing, there is a radical expansion in the number of cloud workloads that enterprises are currently managing. This has resulted in heterogeneous, dynamic and complex infrastructure strategies, which has led to a healthy demand trend.
However, IBM’s frequent acquisitions have escalated integration risks. Buyouts have negatively impacted the company’s balance sheet in the form of high levels of goodwill and net intangible assets. IBM’s margins might have been strained by limited cost-cutting opportunities and stiff competitive pressures, likely delaying key product launches.
End Note
IBM is trading at premium valuation metrics, and investors could wait for a better entry point to cash in on its long-term fundamentals. With declining earnings estimates, the stock is witnessing a negative investor perception. Consequently, it might be prudent to avoid the stock at the moment.
However, IBM expects its growth to be driven primarily by analytics, cloud computing and security services. A better business mix, improving operating leverage through productivity gains and increased investments in growth opportunities will likely be conducive to long-term growth. IBM is poised to benefit from strong demand for hybrid cloud and AI, driving growth in the Software and Consulting segments in the long run.
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IBM Stock Before Q4 Earnings: A Smart Buy or Risky Investment?
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 29. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $17.6 billion and $3.74 per share, respectively. Earnings estimates for IBM for 2024 have remained steady at $10.16 per share over the past 60 days while the same for 2025 have declined to $10.61 per share from $10.63.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
IBM Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Surprise History
The cloud and data platform delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average, beating estimates on each occasion. In the last reported quarter, the company pulled off an earnings surprise of 1.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for IBM for the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
IBM currently has an ESP of 0.00% with a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping Upcoming Results
During the to-be-reported quarter, IBM collaborated with the defense intelligence enterprise Janes. The partnership will work toward augmenting the decision-making process in defense operations with trusted AI (artificial intelligence) applications by integrating Janes’ extensive dataset with IBM watsonx AI and data platform, utilizing the IBM Granite model. By combining generative AI capabilities with an efficient data retrieval system, this integration will offer AI-assisted scenario modeling and retrieval augmented data analysis that helps in mission planning. IBM also inked a partnership with Lockheed Martin to integrate IBM Granite large language models to expedite AI-driven innovation in aerospace and defense applications. These are likely to have generated incremental revenues in the Consulting segment.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Consulting segment is pegged at $5.28 billion, while our model projects revenues of $5.39 billion.
During the reported quarter, IBM introduced the IBM Guardium Data Security Center to help organizations secure their data in diverse environments throughout its lifecycle with integrated controls. The platform features a single dashboard consolidating all data assets, allowing security teams to streamline monitoring, governance, detection, AI security management and cryptography workflows. This software not only manages security risks for sensitive AI data and models but also helps identify AI deployments, ensuring compliance and protecting crucial data through a centralized view of assets.
IBM also completed the acquisition of Prescinto, a prominent provider of asset performance management software-as-a-service tailored for the renewable energy industry. With AI at the core, Prescinto’s cutting-edge technology addresses some vital functionalities of asset performance management of the renewable energy sector. This solution uses high-definition maps, real-time monitoring and custom alerts to provide a comprehensive and centralized visualization of assets. These are likely to have translated into incremental revenues in the Software segment.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Software segment is pegged at $7.84 billion, while our model projects revenues of $7.43 billion.
However, despite solid hybrid cloud and AI traction, IBM faces stiff competition from Amazon Web Services and Microsoft’s Azure. The company’s ongoing, heavily time-consuming business model transition to the cloud is a challenging task. Weakness in its traditional business and foreign exchange volatility remain significant concerns.
Price Performance
Over the past year, IBM has gained 28.3% compared with no change for the industry. It has outperformed peers like Microsoft Corporation (MSFT - Free Report) but lagged Oracle Corporation (ORCL - Free Report) over this period.
One-Year IBM Stock Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Valuation Metric
From a valuation standpoint, IBM appears to be trading at a premium relative to the industry and is trading well above its mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company shares currently trade at 20.96 forward earnings, higher than 19.93 for the industry and the stock’s mean of 13.18.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Considerations
IBM aims to benefit from the increasing propensity of business enterprises to undertake a cloud-agnostic and interoperable approach to secure multi-cloud management with a diligent focus on hybrid cloud and generative AI solutions. With a surge in traditional cloud-native workloads and associated applications, along with a rise in generative AI deployment and quantum computing, there is a radical expansion in the number of cloud workloads that enterprises are currently managing. This has resulted in heterogeneous, dynamic and complex infrastructure strategies, which has led to a healthy demand trend.
However, IBM’s frequent acquisitions have escalated integration risks. Buyouts have negatively impacted the company’s balance sheet in the form of high levels of goodwill and net intangible assets. IBM’s margins might have been strained by limited cost-cutting opportunities and stiff competitive pressures, likely delaying key product launches.
End Note
IBM is trading at premium valuation metrics, and investors could wait for a better entry point to cash in on its long-term fundamentals. With declining earnings estimates, the stock is witnessing a negative investor perception. Consequently, it might be prudent to avoid the stock at the moment.
However, IBM expects its growth to be driven primarily by analytics, cloud computing and security services. A better business mix, improving operating leverage through productivity gains and increased investments in growth opportunities will likely be conducive to long-term growth. IBM is poised to benefit from strong demand for hybrid cloud and AI, driving growth in the Software and Consulting segments in the long run.