Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC Quick QuoteMMC - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 30, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share is pegged at $1.75, which indicates a 4.2% rise from the prior-year quarter’s number. 

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The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has moved south by a cent over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.9 billion, indicating 6.4% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure. 

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For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MMC’s revenues is pegged at $24.3 billion, implying a rise of 6.9% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for current year EPS is pegged at $8.67, indicating an improvement of 8.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Marsh & McLennan’s Earnings Surprise History

Marsh & McLennan’s bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.67%. This is depicted in the chart below:

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for MMC

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Marsh & McLennan this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here, as you see below.

Earnings ESP: Marsh & McLennan has an Earnings ESP of -3.59%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.69 per share, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.75.  You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MMC currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors to Note Ahead of MMC’s Results

Strong performances of the Risk and Insurance Services and Consulting segments are likely to have benefited revenues of Marsh & McLennan in the fourth quarter. 

The Risk and Insurance Services segment is expected to have gained on the back of a well-performing Marsh sub-division. Strong operations in the form of new business growth and solid retention rates across the United States and Latin America are expected to have provided an impetus to Marsh’s performance. Several acquisitions, which have solidified its capabilities and geographic reach, pursued through Marsh McLennan Agency are likely to have buoyed the performance of the sub-branch. Additionally, strength in the unit’s other sub-division, Guy Carpenter, is likely to have provided an impetus to the quarterly performance.   

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of the Risk and Insurance Services segment is pegged at $3.5 billion, indicating a rise of 6.8% from the prior-year quarter’s level. Our estimate for the metric also stands at around $3.5 billion. The consensus mark for the segment’s adjusted operating income is $865.8 million, indicating 9.5% growth from the prior-year quarter’s figure. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of the Marsh sub-division implies 7.7% growth from the prior-year quarter’s level. The consensus estimate for the Guy Carpenter business’ revenues indicates a 6.4% rise.  

Marsh & McLennan’s Consulting segment is expected to have gained momentum from the strong performance of its Oliver Wyman sub-unit in the fourth quarter. Sustained demand in defined benefits consulting and growth in investment management is expected to have aided the Mercer (another sub-unit of the Consulting segment) business. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Consulting segment’s revenues is pegged at $2.4 billion, which indicates growth of 4.5% from the prior-year quarter’s tally. Our estimate for the metric is $2.36 billion. The consensus mark for the segment’s adjusted operating income is $489.5 million, indicating 2% growth from the year-ago quarter’s number. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of the Mercer sub-division indicates a 4.7% rise from the prior-year quarter’s level. The consensus estimate for the Oliver Wyman business’ revenues indicates 3.8% growth.  

Despite undertaking multiple cost-curbing efforts, the bottom line of Marsh & McLennan is expected to have suffered from elevated compensation and benefits costs. Our estimate indicates total operating expenses to increase 3.1% year over year.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies from the insurance space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP Quick QuoteTRUP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +97.37% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TRUP’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 6 cents per share. A loss of 5 cents per share was incurred in the year-ago quarter.  

Trupanion’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 63.89%. 

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG Quick QuoteAJG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.03% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJG’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.03 per share, which implies a 9.7% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.  

Arthur J. Gallagher’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and matched the mark once, the average surprise being 1.16%.

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL Quick QuoteKNSL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KNSL’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.34 per share, which implies a 12.1% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.  

Kinsale Capital’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.41%.