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Jobless Claims Decreased More Than Expected

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Ahead of Thursday’s open, we see a drop in the blue-chip Dow index — perhaps a function of market participants spending more time with Big Tech stocks, many of which are posting, or have posted, earnings this week. The Dow has sold off -95 points at this hour, with the S&P +13 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up an even +100. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also up +19 points at this hour.

Jobless Claims, Q4 GDP Fall

Just when we think Weekly Jobless Claims may break out to a new level higher, they pull back down within a week or two. Thus it is with last week’s Initial Jobless Claims tally: +207K new claims were filed, far lower than the +228K forecast and the previous week’s unrevised +223K. This is the second-lowest print so far of the young year — one than has also seen two weeks above +220K.

Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears from new claims, are roughly on the same tack this week: 1.858 million longer-term claims is down from the slightly upwardly revised 1.900 million the previous week. As it has been going back through the fall of 2024, that 1.9 million longer-term claim threshold continues to see resistance. Both of these weekly figures speak of a strong labor market.

Ahead of tomorrow morning’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the U.S. Bureau of Economics, the same agency releases new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, and today we see Q4 coming in lighter than expected by 20 basis points (bps) to +2.3%. It’s also lower than the previous quarter’s +3.1% — the lowest since +1.6% reported for Q1 2024 — and lower than the trailing four-quarter average of +2.5%.

Q4 Earnings Update: Southwest, UPS

Despite posting record-high revenue numbers in its Q4 report ahead of today’s opening bell, Southwest Airlines ((LUV - Free Report) shares are trading down by -1.5% at this hour. Earnings of 56 cents per share outpaced the 45 cents expected (and well ahead of the 37 cents per share printed in the year-ago quarter) for a +24% positive earnings surprise. Revenues, however, came in a smidge light of expectations to $6.93 billion for the quarter. Airline-specific were all down slightly, and shares continue their downward slide to start the year. 

UPS ((UPS - Free Report) also beat estimates on its bottom line — earnings of $2.75 per share easily surpassed the $2.52 expected — but shares are tumbling -15% at this hour, citing weak guidance in the company’s full report, at the hand of Amazon services reportedly taking share. Revenues in the quarter were down just -0.13% from estimates to $25.3 billion, but UPS stock has given back all of its gains year to date.

Mastercard ((MA - Free Report) also outperformed earnings estimates — $3.82 per share versus $3.68 anticipated — on a revenue beat of $7.49 billion over $7.38 billion expected. Shares are up modestly, following +4% gains year to date; the company only has one earnings miss in the past five years — a not-insignificant feat.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

With the latest Fed meeting behind us, what we have to look forward to are Pending Homes Sales results for December, which are expected to cool down to +0.3% from +2.2% a month ago. Like all things real estate, region is key, but this metric collects all pending home sales together. It’s expected to be the fourth-straight positive print.

After today’s close Apple ((AAPL - Free Report) is among those companies reporting earnings. Expectations are for +8.26% earnings growth and +3.7% growth in quarterly revenues. The tech giant carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) into today’s earnings release.

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